Two years of war in Ukraine | “For the Ukrainians, there is no plan B. It’s resistance or nothing”

Ukrainian forces risk often finding themselves in perilous positions this year as Western support shows its limits, playing into the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainian army, which failed in 2023 to make significant territorial gains as part of a widely announced counter-offensive, in turn finds itself on the defensive and risks seeing its capabilities severely tested in the coming months.

The announcement of the capture of the town of Avdiïvka by Russian troops clearly illustrated, one week before the anniversary of the bloody conflict, the shift in the trend underway on the ground.

At the same time, it led to new warnings from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who spoke of an “extremely difficult” situation for his troops during a security conference in Munich where pessimism was the order of the day regarding the turn of the conflict.

Dominique Arel, a Ukraine specialist attached to Carleton University, judges that the capture of Avdiïvka represents a “hard blow” on a symbolic level for Kyiv, even if Moscow had to sacrifice thousands of soldiers to achieve its ends. after months of fierce fighting.

The city, largely destroyed, was retaken by Ukrainian forces in 2014 after briefly coming under the control of pro-Russian militiamen and had not changed sides since.

The question, notes Mr. Arel, is to see whether Russian forces, which are carrying out attacks against many other Ukrainian-controlled towns along the front line, will be able to push the advantage in the weeks and months to come.

“The worst scenario would be that the Eastern Front begins to collapse,” notes Dominique Arel, who is alarmed by the possibility that President Vladimir Putin succeeds in taking control of the entire Donbass. , one of its declared objectives.

The Russian leader declared unambiguously on Tuesday that the capture of Avdiivka was an “absolute success” on which “it is necessary to build”.

Liam Collins, an American military analyst, notes that Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from the city to minimize their losses by retreating further west.

The situation risks repeating itself since Kyiv cannot do anything other than preserve troops and equipment in the face of an adversary with vastly superior resources.

The Russian army has always had a significant advantage that it particularly intends to take advantage of while Ukraine sees the support of key allies faltering and compromising its supply of arms and ammunition, notes Mr. Collins.

The most glaring problem for Kyiv is the ongoing political deadlock in Washington, where aid to Ukraine finds itself at the heart of a standoff between Democrats and Republicans.

Senators from both camps approved a package providing additional support worth 60 billion US dollars. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, close to former President Donald Trump, is however opposed to it and refuses to put it to a vote.

“The envelope would pass easily since a majority of elected officials in each party remains favorable to the idea of ​​supporting Ukraine,” notes Mr. Collins.

The possible victory in the US presidential election of Donald Trump – who promises, without saying how, to resolve the war in Ukraine in one day – adds to the uncertainty.

While waiting for a hypothetical release, the Ukrainian army is seeing its arsenal diminish and is beginning to lack warheads and surface-to-air missiles critical to its defense.

Ukraine increases calls for help

Mark Cancian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, notes that military supplies from the United States are only a quarter of what they were a year ago.

“In June, it will only be 8%,” notes the researcher, who has difficulty seeing how the Ukrainian forces can hope to resist in the long term in such circumstances.

The Russian forces, he said, suffered from significant logistical problems and had to suffer heavy material and human losses. These were, however, partly erased by effective recruitment strategies and mobilization of the Russian economy in support of the war.

The country also enlisted the support of North Korea and Iran, which provided ammunition and drones.

While pressing Washington, the Ukrainian government is increasing calls for help from the European side, which does not currently have the capacity to make up for the American shortfall.

The countries of the continent took too long to mobilize to intensify their arms production and are struggling to meet the promises already made in Kyiv.

“Production capacity is not where it should be. The European Union had committed to delivering 1 million warheads by 1^er March, but will ultimately only be able to respect half of its promise,” illustrates Dominique Arel.

Gustav Gressel, a specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, writes in a recent analysis that increasing European military production capacity is essential if Ukrainian forces want to be able to regain the advantage on the ground in 2025.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst, recently noted in a specialist podcast that this increase in production will be crucial, as will the Ukrainian government’s efforts to deal with its recruiting problems.

If they are not resolved within the year, Ukraine will find itself on a “very dangerous path” that could ultimately lead to defeat, he said.

Things could deteriorate very gradually on the ground and “perhaps then very suddenly”, he warned.

Putin, “supremely confident”

The coming months indeed promise to be highly perilous for the Ukrainian forces, underlines Eugene Rumer, a Russia specialist attached to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Vladimir Putin seems “supremely confident” for the moment and will want to take full advantage of the military momentum, underlines the analyst, who is among the rare specialists to have believed in a possible invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

If Russia seems to be gaining the upper hand, Vladimir Putin will maintain his maximalist demands with a view to making Ukraine a “satellite” of his country, a proposal which has no chance of being deemed acceptable by the Ukrainian population. .

Mr. Rumer says he is “very worried” about the possibility that the Russian president, intoxicated by a hypothetical victory, will go even further, for example by trying to secretly destabilize a Baltic country to test the commitment NATO countries to come to the defense of any member country attacked.

Donald Trump’s procrastination regarding the importance of respecting this commitment, combined with the evolution of the military situation in Ukraine, has led to a wave of panic among European countries, many of which in recent months have publicly raised the possibility of direct conflict with Russia in the years to come.

Dominique Arel hopes that this awareness will convince these leaders to double down on military production and give Ukraine the tools it needs to turn the situation around.

“The tide has turned in favor of Russia, but nothing says that it will not turn again. For the Ukrainians, there is no plan B. It’s resistance or nothing,” he concludes.

Read “The front in four stages”