On the hot sands of Antalya, on the shores of the Mediterranean or on the shores of the Bosphorus, which until recently were used by warships, the Russian presence is everywhere in Turkey.
This forces Ankara, a member of NATO and an ally of Ukraine, to a “delicate” exercise of balance under penalty of emptying the hotels on the coast and depriving its citizens of heating and bread, as its dependence is close to tourists, Russian gas and wheat to name but a few.
“Don’t abandon Kyiv or Moscow” and “don’t give in on Turkey’s interests”: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has done a lot to promote mediation between the two countries, himself summed up the first days of the conflict the equation to which it is subjected.
He traveled to Kyiv last month to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky – to whom Turkey delivers the combat drones that have already targeted Russian columns on the ground.
And he repeatedly reiterated his invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him – an offer politely received by the person concerned who did not follow up.
“In reality, Turkey is actively engaged alongside Ukraine and is gradually turning away from Russia,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund.
“But it is acting with caution so as not to attract the wrath of reprisals,” he told AFP, citing the unresolved conflicts between the two countries, as many “points of vulnerability” which Moscow could use, by Syria or Libya.
At the same time. President Erdogan has moved closer to Moscow in recent years after a series of disappointments and tensions with Westerners.
The two countries have even managed to overcome the crisis that pitted them after a Russian fighter plane was shot down by Turkey in 2015.
Discreet support for Ukraine
Turkey depends on Moscow to keep its economy afloat, already undermined by inflation at almost 55% over one year.
Thus, in 2021, Russia ensured 44% of its gas imports and its 4.7 million tourists represented 19% of foreign visitors to Turkey.
Interviewed by AFP, Elizabete Aunina, researcher at the Amsterdam Institute for Social Science, summed up Turkey’s position as follows: “discreet support for Ukraine, while minimizing any potential threat to its own security, its geostrategic interests and economic”.
“But without openly taking sides,” she adds.
Turkey has refrained from joining sanctions against Russian interests and also abstained in the Council of Europe during the vote suspending Russia.
Ankara also sticks to a reading to the letter of the Montreux Convention which governs traffic in the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles Strait, which opens the way to the Black Sea.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Edam Studies Center in Istanbul, speaks of “skillful diplomacy”, which without “sanctioning Russia” applies the treaty “with firmness”.
On the table ?
Ankara thus refused access to three Russian military buildings on February 27 and 28 – three days after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – which were not registered in the Black Sea and therefore not authorized to go there, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu said on Tuesday.
However, most of the boats were already in and deployed by then, nuance Turkey specialist Anthony Skinner.
“The fact that Turkey has not closed its airspace to Russian planes or imposed sanctions on Moscow proves that Ankara is anxious to avoid a costly rupture,” he adds.
Especially sixteen months before the next Turkish presidential term, in June 2023.
For Mr. Skinner, President Erdogan has taken care not to “put all his eggs in one basket” and this crisis may provide him with an opportunity to get closer to Westerners.
“The big question is what Washington and other capitals are prepared to offer him,” he asks. “What are they going to put on the table”?
On Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan wondered at the right time whether to “wait for a war against Turkey” to integrate it into the European Union.