Turkey at the polls, Erdogan given as favorite

Turkey votes on Sunday for the second round of the presidential election which could offer a new five-year term to outgoing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, given favorite after two decades in power, against his social-democratic rival Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.

Face closed for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, smile displayed for Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the two rivals voted at midday and both called on their fellow citizens to vote.

“No country in the world has participation rates of 90%, Turkey has almost reached them. I ask my fellow citizens to come and vote without weakening,” argued the head of state, after voting in the conservative district of Usküdar on the Asian side of Istanbul.

“For true democracy and freedom to come to this country, to get rid of an authoritarian government, I invite all citizens to vote,” said Mr. Kiliçdaroglu after voting in Ankara, the capital, applauded by supporters.

He also invited them to stay near the polls after the close of polls (at 5:00 p.m. local time), “because this election took place in very difficult conditions”, he said.

In the first round, the belated results had held the country of 85 million inhabitants in suspense before granting Mr. Erdogan 49.5% of the vote, against 44.9% for Mr. Kiliçdaroglu, candidate of a broad alliance of six parties ranging from nationalists to left-liberals.

Lines of voters formed even before the opening of the polls at 08:00 local time despite the rain.

The presence of observers deployed by the opposition is much more visible than in the first round, the latter having planned “five observers per ballot box”, ie a million people in total to monitor the ballot.

In Ankara, Mehmet Emin Ayaz, a 64-year-old entrepreneur, considers it “important to preserve what has been acquired over the past twenty years in Turkey” under the Erdogan era. On the other hand, for Aysen Gunday, a 61-year-old retiree, “these elections are a referendum” and she chose Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.

Two visions

Two visions of the country, society and governance are offered to the 60 million voters in Turkey (the diaspora has already voted) called to the polls on Sunday.

Stability at the risk of autocracy with the outgoing hyper-president, a 69-year-old Islamo-conservative; or the return to a peaceful democracy, in his words, with his opponent, a 74-year-old former civil servant.

The first-round advance of Mr. Erdogan, a former mayor of Istanbul and a devout Muslim, testified to the broad support given to him, despite the inflation, by a conservative majority.

Including in the areas devastated by the February 6 earthquake which left at least 50,000 dead and three million displaced.

Facing him, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the “demokrat dede” – the democratic grandpa – as this trained economist with white hair and thin glasses presents himself, has not been able to capitalize on the serious economic crisis which is weighing down Turkish households and young people .

President of the CHP – the party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the republic – he promised the “return of spring” and of the parliamentary regime, of the independence of justice and of the press.

But Kemal Kiliçdaroglu looks like aoutsider despite the repeated support of the pro-Kurdish HDP, facing the head of state who already enjoys a majority in parliament following the legislative elections of 14th May.

On Sunday, his voters oscillated between dejection and the last glimmer of hope. “We are less motivated” than in the first round, admits Bayram Ali Yüce, a 45-year-old welder.

Access to official TV

Lacking access to the major media and especially to the official television channels dedicated to the president’s campaign, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu battled on Twitter when his supporters tried to remobilize voters by door-to-door in the big cities.

At stake, the 8.3 million registrants who did not come on May 14 – despite a participation rate of 87%.

Faced with this discreet man of Alevi obedience – a branch of Islam considered heretical by the rigorous Sunnis -, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiplied the meetings, relying on the transformations he has been able to bring to the country since his accession to the power as Prime Minister in 2003, then as President since 2014.

The date of this second round comes ten years to the day after the start of the great demonstrations of “Gezi” which, from Istanbul, spread throughout the country. First wave of anti-Erdogan protests, they had been severely repressed.

But on Sunday, the Erdogan camp showed its confidence in preparing the speech of the outgoing president, in the evening, from the presidential palace in Ankara and not the headquarters of his party, the AKP.

Unless there is a surprise, the results are expected on Sunday evening, and will be scrutinized by Turkey’s allies, particularly within NATO.

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