Donald Trump has shifted his stance on the Ukraine conflict, moving from a promise to end the war swiftly to a more complex strategy involving pressure on both Russia and Ukraine. His National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, suggests a ceasefire as a potential first step. Experts believe Trump will maintain US support for Ukraine while leveraging oil production to weaken Russia. A potential peace plan faces significant challenges, with both sides needing to compromise on territorial and military issues.
Trump’s Vision for Ukraine: A New Strategy Unfolds
During his campaign, Donald Trump made a bold proclamation: ‘I will end the brutal war between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of my election victory.’ However, the narrative has shifted since then. What are Trump’s current intentions regarding the conflict? Experts are beginning to outline a strategy that aims to apply pressure on both Russia and Ukraine.
At his inaugural press conference post-election, Trump pivoted away from his earlier assertions, discussing the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He characterized the Middle Eastern conflict as more straightforward, while deeming the situation in Ukraine as ‘more complex.’
Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, shared insights on the Ukraine situation, stating, ‘We must put an end to the fighting. A ceasefire could be a viable first step that we will earnestly consider,’ as he mentioned on CBS.
Assessing the Current Landscape
John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and an expert at the Atlantic Council, notes that Trump and his team are just beginning to grasp the realities of the Ukrainian conflict. He suggests that anyone thinking Trump will abruptly halt US support for Ukraine in favor of Russia might be mistaken.
Herbst asserts, ‘Everyone Trump has appointed to key positions recognizes that Russia poses a significant threat to the United States.’ This sentiment is echoed by key figures like designated Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Security Advisor Michael Waltz, future Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg, and even the controversial Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth.
In his first interview after winning the election, Trump acknowledged that his objectives go beyond mere economic interests.
Utilizing Oil Prices as a Negotiation Tool
So, what leverage can the US wield to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in negotiations? Herbst believes, ‘We can exert considerable pressure on Russia. From day one, Trump will ramp up American oil and gas production and exports, adopting the mantra of ‘Drill, baby, drill.’ This strategy will undermine oil prices, negatively impacting Russia.’
Additionally, Trump might threaten to enhance military support for Ukraine, surpassing the hesitant measures of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
Challenges to a Peace Plan
Herbst identifies four key elements that could form the basis of a potential Trump peace plan. However, he notes that two of these components would be challenging for Ukraine to accept: placing certain Ukrainian territories under Russian control and abandoning aspirations for NATO membership for the next two decades.
Conversely, the other two aspects would be difficult for Russia to accept: establishing a demilitarized zone safeguarded by European ground troops and providing Ukraine with arms to defend against future Russian incursions.
Herbst emphasizes that security guarantees from the US are essential—not only directly for Ukraine but also for the European troops involved. While American soldiers would not be deployed on the ground, robust air support would be crucial in the event of Russian provocations.
Following Trump’s election win, speculation about a resolution to the Ukraine war has surged. How feasible is this prospect?
Aiming for Lasting Peace
Herbst believes that a realistic timeline for negotiations would be two to three months after initial contact with Putin, leading to a possible deployment of European peacekeeping troops by next fall, or at the latest, by the end of the year.
Regarding the number of peacekeeping troops, Herbst suggests, ‘Stationing around 100,000 European troops in Ukraine—potentially more or less depending on the situation—alongside decisive US responses to any Russian provocations could pave the way for lasting peace.’
Every year, Putin shares his perspective on global affairs, which sets the stage for potential discussions.
Trump’s Image at Stake
Mark Katz, a political scientist at George Mason University, offers a more cautious outlook. He emphasizes the unpredictability of both Trump’s approach and Putin’s responses, making concrete predictions challenging.
Yet Katz believes Trump will not turn his back on Ukraine. ‘Last year, many Republicans opposed aid to Ukraine solely to undermine Biden’s presidency. If Ukraine were to fail under Trump, it would reflect poorly on him as well. He certainly does not want to appear as a loser.’
As for Ukraine’s future in a year’s time, Katz expresses hope for a ceasefire. ‘If we cannot achieve that, we must brace ourselves for the possibility of a larger conflict in Europe.’
This report was featured by Deutschlandfunk on December 26, 2024, at 1:20 PM.