Trumpism without Trump, a winning formula for 2022?

2022 will be a crucial election year in the United States, and Republicans approach it with an ambition that until recently seemed inconceivable: to win without Donald Trump.

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The opposition party aims to take both houses of Congress back from Joe Biden’s Democrats in the November 2022 midterm elections, two years after the Republican billionaire’s defeat in the presidential election.

This ballot, traditionally complicated for those in power, is an opportunity for Republicans to try a new roadmap, by getting rid of Donald Trump’s grip, five years after his resounding victory at the White House.

In the current political landscape, the shadow of the former president never hovers far: more than a year after his defeat, the American campaigns are still decked out with “TRUMP” flags, tides of red caps are still flowing to his meetings. and the former real estate mogul doesn’t miss an opportunity to give Tories’ favorite Fox News a few confidences.

Until recently, the prevailing idea remained that all roads to Congress passed through Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s luxurious residence in Florida, and that in order to be successful in Washington one had to be dubbed by the billionaire, and thereby flatter the tens of millions of supporters who constitute its loyal base.

Deprived of his Twitter account, the former president no longer enjoys exactly the same influence as before, but his sponsorships continue to galvanize an army of activists and generate substantial donations for the party.

But the ex-president remains divisive and obtaining his support is not necessarily a panacea.

“So far, the candidates supported by Trump have not done particularly well,” said Sam Nelson, professor of political science at the University of Toledo, Ohio, one of those states which in turn elects Republicans. and Democrats.

“Republican primary candidates are scrambling to receive his sponsorships, which are very useful in Republican races, but those same sponsorships can prove dangerous in a larger election, motivating Democrats to vote en masse against the candidate backed by Trump,” he maintains.

The codes, without the temperament

A local election in Virginia in early November drew the contours of an alternative path: that of Trumpism, without Trump.

When Republican millionaire Glenn Youngkin won the ballot, which looked like a dress rehearsal for the midterm elections, Donald Trump immediately cracked a press release.

“I would like to thank my supporters for coming out in large numbers to vote for Glenn Youngkin,” he applauded. “Without you, he was not going to win.”

Is it so certain?

During his campaign, which focused on education and other major Republican markers, the candidate from Virginia tried to keep the former president at a safe distance. And clinched the victory by far surpassing Trump’s 2020 scores in residential suburbs, especially among independent voters and women.

Symbols of a certain form of American comfort, these suburbs with white houses and well-trimmed lawns will be one of the main grounds for the electoral battles of 2022. However, the stormy Donald Trump is less popular there than in the great rural plains. from the heart of America.

The former president’s popularity was also affected by the assault on Capitol Hill, when his supporters stormed the seat of the United States Congress on a cold January day.

“Talking about the future”

Glenn Youngkin’s victory in Virginia therefore serves as an instruction manual for Republicans: it is necessary to take up the codes, the favorite themes of the Republican billionaire, while deviating from his most outrageous positions which frightened the moderates.

The leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has also urged the septuagenarian to stay out of the poll: “I think we need to talk about the future, not the past,” he told reporters.

But others in his camp are not so clear: it would be “silly” to reject Trump’s support recently warned Rick Scott, another influential figure in the party.

Because, for millions, Donald Trump is still the man who freed the country from the grip of an elite, lowered taxes, and appointed a myriad of conservative judges to positions where they could have a significant influence on the debates in American society.

“Donald Trump is where he wants to be – the center of attention,” analysis with AFP Peter Loge of George Washington University. “It’s hard to imagine it fading away so that others can have their turn in the spotlight.”

The 2022 midterm elections will be decisive in determining the level of support Trump will receive … for the 2024 presidential election.

“If the candidates backed by Trump win the election, Trump’s rating will rise,” said the professor. “If the candidates backed by Trump lose the election, his rating will go down.”


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