The trend seems inexorable. A 60e Consecutive poll puts conservatives far ahead of liberals.
And yet, Justin Trudeau hangs on. No question of taking a walk in the snow like his father and giving up his weapons.
On the contrary, the response is being prepared. The liberals will want to bank on an unlikely ally: Donald Trump.
Indeed, what could be better than the most reviled politician, the most hated, the most dangerous for democracy to restore the tarnished image of the sunny ways.
Save Canada
Contrasts are always effective weapons in politics. The threat of a President Trump will be easily exploited by liberals.
The threat of an American democracy in danger, of a more fragile world order, would certainly allow Justin Trudeau to return to a role in which he excels, that of Captain Canada.
Draped in the maple leaf, he would above all have a lever to relaunch his advocacy for inclusion, immigration, tolerance and openness to the world.
Campaigning on the values that the liberals claim to be exclusive to would above all avoid relying on the results of the last 10 years.
What is an unprecedented housing crisis when Washington is threatened with chaos? What is $1,282 billion in debt worth when Trumpian obscurantism hovers over the West? What is an electoralist and incoherent foreign policy in the face of the isolationism of the American billionaire and his fascination with the worst despots on the planet?
Scarecrow
For a year, the liberals have tried to demonize Pierre Poilievre, to saddle him with the opprobrium of populist and conspiratorial radicalism.
The prospect of a Trump presidency will offer them a new argument.
We can already hear the lines of attack.
- Listen to the Latraverse-Bock-Côté meeting with Emmanuelle Latraverse via QUB :
As the future of NAFTA hangs in the balance, can Canada take the risk of an inexperienced leader? Worse, of a Pierre Poilievre populist enough to have opposed free trade with Ukraine?
With the Republicans in power, can Canada take the risk of entrusting the keys to the country’s abortion rights to a party whose most militant fringe is pro-life? (Because any excuse will be good to make people forget that Pierre Poilievre is openly and resolutely pro-choice.)
Each of the delusional theses south of the border will remind us of the flirtation with conspiracy theorists of certain Conservative MPs.
Every time Pierre Poilievre judoes with the truth, cuts corners, attacks elites and the media, the parallel with Trump will be brandished.
The hope of course will be to transpose the indignation that Donald Trump arouses onto the shoulders of the polarizing conservative leader.
Fatigue
The tactic has been used before. Liberals are masters in the art of demonizing their opponents.
And yet, it is far from certain that this time, the blow will be fatal for the conservatives.
The Trudeau government is no longer trying to convince the electorate to support it for lack of anything better. He must reverse an absolutely unprecedented rate of unpopularity.
When more than two-thirds of Canadians absolutely want to see Justin Trudeau resign, the question arises. How many of them are even willing to listen to the fear campaign he is planning against his opponent?