Who can still doubt that Donald Trump will be elected to the Republican Party nomination? For over a year, it has been obvious that he will come first. Only his opponents in the Republican Party are trying to maintain doubt, because it is necessary to maintain media attention and because second place has not yet been decided.
But the latest polls are merciless. A CBSNews/YouGov poll published yesterday gives 69% of voting intentions to Trump, 14% to Ron DeSantis and 12% to Nikky Haley, his closest rivals.
It would take a political cataclysm for Trump not to be the Republican candidate. Something like a very improbable decision by the United States Supreme Court that would rule that Trump violated the 14e amendment to the U.S. Constitution and therefore he is barred from running for president.
Polls on the voting intentions of American voters for the presidential elections remain favorable to Trump, by one or two percentage points. The gap remains within the margins of error, but it indicates a consolidating trend.
In other words, the multiple trials Trump faces are boosting his popularity.
- Listen to international politics expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB :
Disaster
Among specialists in American politics and those in international politics, the analysis is almost unanimous: a new Trump presidency would be catastrophic for the United States and for the world.
Trump doesn’t understand international politics, as his love of dictators shows. His determination to carve up the federal government is harmful to the economy. His government for the rich and by the rich will accentuate social divisions. It has also failed to stem waves of illegal migration.
The political problem facing the United States is known. How is it that a man so dangerous for democracy, for the economy and for world peace still receives the support of almost half of American voters?
How is it that specialists who think about politics are incapable of making Trumpist voters understand the immense dangers that a possible re-election of Trump entails?
- Listen to international politics expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB :
Maximum emotions
Part of the explanation may be the extreme political emotional state in the United States.
Generally, voters are left to their own devices between elections. That is to say that they are rarely used by political parties, except of course at the time of the mid-term elections.
However, Trump’s electoral campaign for his re-election in 2024 began as soon as he was defeated in November 2020. Trump was able to maintain a level of emotional excitement among his voters that was maximum. This maximum emotional excitement does not promote reflection, especially since Trump is playing the anti-intellectualism card.
The only way to turn an emotional tide is to create a stronger counter-emotion. Joe Biden is incapable of it.