Kevin Hayes believes winning the presidency hinges on Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, emphasizing its reflection of national trends. In a tight race, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie for the support of the state’s substantial Catholic electorate. Recent polls show a narrow lead for Harris among Catholics overall, though Trump holds an advantage with white Catholics. With significant outreach efforts underway, both candidates aim to secure this crucial demographic, highlighting their respective commitments to faith and values.
Kevin Hayes believes that Pennsylvania is the key to winning the White House. With its 19 electoral votes, candidates need to secure this state to achieve a majority in the Electoral College by November 5. Hayes, a Catholic affiliate with the organization ‘Catholics Vote Common Good’, shared with Kathpress that “Pennsylvania is a perfect mirror of America.”
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Reflecting national sentiments, recent polls show Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris nearly neck-and-neck. This means every vote is crucial in the home stretch. A significant contest for the Catholic vote, which comprises approximately a quarter of the electorate, is underway. The most recognizable figure among them is Joe Biden, who hails from the industrial city of Scranton.
A recent survey indicates that Harris holds a narrow lead with 49 percent compared to Trump’s 48 percent among Catholic voters in Pennsylvania. The polling results reveal a gender divide similar to the broader voter demographic: 57 percent of Catholic women support Harris, while 57 percent of Catholic men back Trump. Among white Catholics specifically, Trump maintains a stronger advantage, leading 55 to 42 percent according to the data.
“We are placing our bets on Pennsylvania,” stated Brian Burch, president of Catholic Vote, which serves as a campaign mobilization entity for Trump within battleground states. The group highlights that Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance is a committed Catholic, relying on a personal outreach strategy with over 500,000 handwritten postcards sent to Catholic voters.
Uniting Evangelicals and Catholics
Trump aims to ally with both evangelicals and Catholics, appealing to their experiences of marginalization. At a gathering in Georgia, he alleged that devout Christians are facing political oppression from Democrats, suggesting that Harris wanted to reduce them to “second-class citizens.” During an interview with the conservative Catholic outlet EWTN, Trump portrayed himself as a staunch supporter of the Church, stating, “I love the Catholic Church immensely,” despite his Presbyterian upbringing and not being recognized for an especially devout lifestyle.
Conversely, Kamala Harris does not have a Catholic background but underscores the significance of active faith. In a recent address at a Baptist church in Georgia, she discussed the concept of a “loving God” that urges individuals to “stand up for those who cannot defend themselves.” Furthermore, during a CNN Citizens’ Hour, she revealed that she prays twice daily.
Polling data regarding religious voters presents mixed results. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey shows that nationally, 51 percent of Christian voters intend to support Trump, while 42 percent are inclined toward Harris. Trump’s strength is especially pronounced among evangelical voters, with support at 61 percent compared to 29 percent for Harris. Within the Catholic demographic, Trump leads 48 percent to 43 percent. The economy remains the foremost concern for U.S. Christians at 75 percent, with immigration (60 percent) and healthcare (53 percent) following, while topics like abortion have lower priority.
Debate Over LGBTQ+ Rights
J.D. Vance, a Catholic convert, consistently highlights the contentious issues surrounding the rights of sexual minorities in his discussions with Christian voters. Speaking in Wisconsin, he accused Democrats of waging a “culture war” against Christians, warning that a Democratic victory would further jeopardize the Catholic Church’s standing. A recent controversy involving Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, feeds into the narrative of persecution, as Trump’s campaign alleges she ridiculed the Holy Eucharist in a TikTok video—a claim she vehemently denies.
Both campaigns recognize the vital role of the Catholic vote in Pennsylvania and are pouring significant resources into their efforts. Political scientist Geoffrey Layman from the University of Notre Dame predicts a tense finish, stating, “Mobilization needs to be flawless for both candidates if they hope to succeed.”