The France Insoumise MP for the Somme, François Ruffin, believes that the pace of renovations of thermal sieves must be accelerated because, at the current rate, it would take “two millennia” to overcome them.
This is a sentence stated during a debate at Sciences Po Paris, on working conditions and the quality of jobs, on October 25, that François Ruffin shared on his account X, formerly Twitter, Tuesday November 7. The deputy La France insoumise from the Somme calculated: “If we want to renovate the five million thermal strainers, knowing that at the rate we are going today, we are doing 2,500 per year, so it will take us two millennia. The equivalent of between Jesus Christ and today to get rid of thermal strainers”, he declared, adding that the field of energy renovation would therefore create jobs. A calculation already given a year ago. But would it really take 2,000 years?
Our goal is that all the inhabitants of this country can make a good living from their work and live it well. May they rediscover the pride of a task accomplished together. The pride of facing the climate shock together. The pride of transforming society together. pic.twitter.com/NOaS44fqWt
— François Ruffin (@Francois_Ruffin) November 7, 2023
Between 2080 and 2360 years with the rate of renovation of 2021…
The MP’s calculation was true before, with the pace of renovation two years ago, but is no longer true now.
François Ruffin found his figure in a report from the Court of Auditors on “The preparation and implementation of the recovery plan”delivered in March 2022. The Court noted that only 2,500 very poorly insulated and energy-intensive homes (classified F or G) had been able to exit the status of “thermal sieves” in 2021 thanks to the MaPrimeRénov’ system set up by the government to help the French to change their windows, their heating, insulate their walls or their roof, while the government objective was 80,000.
At the same time, the National Observatory for Energy Renovation (ONRE) estimated that there were 5.2 million main residences which were thermal sieves as of January 1, 2022. To find the figure of the rebellious MP, it is therefore necessary to divide the total number of thermal strainers by the number of homes which left this status in 2021. According to this calculation, if we continue to renovate at the same pace, it would in fact take around two millennia to get rid of all the strainers thermal. 2,080 years precisely.
A first – provisional – limit to put on this figure is that it would have even been longer in reality with the pace of 2021, because the number of homes which left the status of thermal sieves thanks to MaPrimeRénov’ has been revised downwards . The annual performance project annexed (to download) to the 2024 finance bill reduced this figure to 2,200 housing units. With this rate, it would even have taken 2360 years. That’s how much time has passed, not since Jesus Christ, but since Gaul still existed and had not yet been invaded by the Romans.
…but 220 years according to the rhythm of 2022
The second – more important – limitation is that the pace of renovations has indeed changed since 2021. The following year, in 2022, it went ten times faster. 23,700 homes were removed from thermal sieve status thanks to MaPrimeRénov’ according to the National Housing Agency (Anah) cited in the budgetary annexes to the 2024 finance bill. The calculation of the insubordination is therefore obsolete.
With the rate of renovation of thermal strainers in 2022, it would not take two millennia but 220 years to overcome all thermal strainers. In other words, it is not the equivalent of the time passed since Jesus Christ, contrary to what he says, but of the time which separates us from the coronation of Napoleon I in 1804. For the moment, the figures for 2023 are not known.
Obviously, this acceleration remains very minimal, whereas, according to the High Council for the Climate, “900,000 housing units per year on average” would need to come out of thermal sieve status to eradicate thermal sieves by 2028 and reach the government objective.
Insufficient monitoring of the number of thermal strainers
It is possible to object to the calculation of the rebellious MP that it is based on figures which are not exhaustive. The figure relayed in the budgetary annexes is the only source currently allowing us to say how many homes which were thermal sieves are no longer there thanks to renovation. But it has its limits. It only takes into account housing which has requested an energy diagnosis before carrying out work in order to obtain a bonus for exiting sieve status. It therefore leaves aside accommodations which would not have done so.
The Senate Finance Committee already highlighted the problem in a report on the 2022 finance bill. “The DPE label is not collected automatically as part of the processing of files, but only for files requesting obtaining the related bonus, and for which the audit is required. In other words, many files pass ‘between the cracks’ and escape the status of ‘thermal sieve’ without the information being available in the applicants’ files”she wrote before concluding: “It is to be hoped that this lack of information on the number of ‘thermal sieve’ exits permitted by the device will be quickly filled.”
It should also be noted that other accommodations were subject to renovation during the year 2022, but they were not necessarily thermal sieves or were not followed or are still classified F or G. Nearly 670 000 homes were renovated in 2022 thanks to the MaPrimeRénov’ system, including nearly 70,000 overall renovations, whether primary or secondary residences or rental homes, according to Anah’s annual report.