Thomas Cazenave, Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts, made this assertion on Tuesday. If France is not last in the ranking, other European countries obtain a higher growth rate, according to forecasts from the OECD and the European Commission.
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France’s growth would be in better shape than that of its neighbors. This is what Thomas Cazenave, the Minister Delegate in charge of Public Accounts, said on Tuesday February 20 on France Inter: “Our growth remains strong at 1%, much stronger than our European neighbors.”
This statement follows comments by the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, guest on Sunday evening on TF1’s “8 p.m.” show. He announced that he had revised downwards growth forecasts in France for 2024 with an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1%, instead of the 1.4% initially forecast. But growth that remains “strong” according to the Minister responsible for Public Accounts. How does the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) in France compare to growth in the other countries of the European Union?
In the low average
According to economic forecast data from the European Commission for winter 2024 published at the beginning of February, France is rather in the share of Union countries with low growth. Indeed, according to forecasts, France will have growth of 0.9% in 2024, 18 countries will have growth higher than this and only six countries will show a lower rate. The European Commission forecasts a much higher increase in GDP in other countries, notably Malta (4.6%), Romania (2.9%) and Cyprus (2.8%).
However, if France is in the low average of the European Union, it is not the last in the race. Sweden will post a growth rate of 0.2% and a few points more are expected for Austria, Estonia and Finland, with 0.6%. Finally, Germany, originally rather stable economically, posted growth of 0.3%.
A growth rate within the European average
Same thing if we compare with the closest European neighbors. Spain is at the top of the ranking with announced growth of 1.7% for the year 2024. Belgium and Luxembourg follow, with 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. France’s growth is barely higher than that of Italy, which is forecast at 0.7%. Germany, with its 0.3%, closes the ranking.
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France therefore does not have growth “much stronger” than its European neighbors, contrary to what the minister claims. Its growth rate is also equivalent to the European average, and almost identical to that of the euro zone, which pockets 0.8%. Since the Covid crisis, growth has been weak in the European Union according to the Commission. “Last year’s modest growth is largely due to the momentum of the post-pandemic economic rebound of the previous two years,” explains the European Commission. A trend that seems to continue for the year 2024.
“After narrowly avoiding a technical recession in the second half of last year, the outlook for the first quarter of 2024 remains bleak.”
The European Commission
Outlook revised downwards compared to autumn forecasts. “The expected rebound in 2024 should be more modest than expected three months ago,” says Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for the Economy. In its autumn report, the commission predicted 1.2% growth for France in 2024. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) envisages even lower growth, with a rate of 0.62 % announced for the year 2024 in France.