TRUE OR FALSE. Is France “the country warming the fastest in the world”?

Guest of France Inter, hydrology expert Emma Haziza affirmed that France was “the country which is warming the fastest in the world, 20% faster than the rest of the world”. A statement that caused a lot of reaction on the networks. This is false, but France is warming much faster than the world average.

The statement caused a lot of reaction on social networks. Guest of France Inter on Thursday March 21, on the theme of drought, the hydrology expert and founding president of the Mayane company, Emma Haziza, said: “We are the country warming the fastest in the world, 20% faster than the rest of the world”. True or false ?

Other parts of the globe are warming faster…

It’s wrong. France is not the country that is warming the fastest in the world. In other parts of the globe, such as Greenland, Iceland or Canada, areas close to the Arctic, temperatures have increased faster, as shown in the latest report from the World Climate Organization, published on March 19, 2024. In places, temperatures have increased by more than three degrees compared to the pre-industrial era.

But France is still warming up faster than the world average. According to the “reference warming trajectory” (TRACC), published by the Ministry of Ecological Transition in 2023, “in mainland France, global warming has already reached 1.7°C compared to the pre-industrial era” over the decade 2011-2020. Over the same period, at the global level, “global warming has reached 1.1°C compared to the pre-industrial era”. These latest data, on a global scale, come from the IPCC report.

France is no exception. Europe as a whole is warming twice as fast as the global average, as the World Climate Organization points out. In its report on “the state of the climate in Europe”, published in 2022, it warns: “Since the 1980s, Europe has warmed at an average rate of 0.5°C per decade, more than twice the global average, making this continent the fastest warming continent.”

…but France is warming more than the world average

Why is Europe – and by extension France – warming up faster? First, it should be noted that global temperature averages take the oceans into account. However, the oceans are warming less quickly than the continents. Mathematically, this lowers the global average. The average rise in continental temperatures amounts to 1.6°C, approaching the warming recorded in France.

Even putting that aside, Europe and France are warming up faster. This is largely explained by the geographical position of Europe. In high-latitude European regions, particularly in Sweden, Iceland and Norway, the ice is melting at great speed, which further accelerates warming. As the glaciers melt, all that remains is the rock. However, white surfaces, such as ice, reflect solar energy and absorb less heat than dark surfaces, such as rock. Further south in Europe, around the Mediterranean, drying out of the soil reduces the phenomenon of evaporation, which normally reduces temperatures. The drying out of the soil therefore prevents temperatures from regulating and falling.

Researchers from CNRS, Météo France and the European Center for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computing have produced new projections specifically for France, in a study published in 2022. According to their estimates, France will continue to have temperatures 30% higher than the global average: when the planet has warmed by 1.5°C in 2030, France will have recorded an increase in temperatures of +2°C. In 2100, again according to these projections, France would reach 4 degrees of warming, compared to 3 degrees for the planet.