TRUE OR FALSE. Has France reduced its greenhouse gas emissions as much in 2023 as during the entire mandate of François Hollande?

The Minister Delegate to the Minister of Agriculture, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, assures that “last year, France reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8%”, i.e. “the performance of entire mandate of President Hollande. The figures are accurate but should be taken with caution.

In the middle of the campaign for the European elections, the Minister Delegate to the Minister of Agriculture, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, assures that the current government has done better than the left in the fight against global warming. According to her, “it is this government and this majority which has had the best results in this area”. “I remind you that last year France reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8%, which is the performance of President Hollande’s entire mandate so we have no lessons to learn from the left in terms of the fight against climate change”, she says on Sud Radio. True or false ?

A comparison to be taken with caution

The figures given are accurate, but the comparison should be taken with caution. France has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 19 Mt CO2e (unit of measurement which includes all greenhouse gases), or by 4.8% between 2022 and 2023, according to the latest published emissions barometer. last March by Citepa, the association of independent experts which measures emissions monthly. Between 2012 and 2017, France reduced its emissions by 25 Mt CO2e, a reduction of 5.1% over the period, we can read in the association’s latest inventory report. Similar numbers.

As a reminder, greenhouse gases are gases present in the atmosphere, which retain part of the heat from the sun. The increase in their concentration causes a rise in temperatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, but we also find methane and nitrous oxide.

The emissions reductions measured in 2023 and over the period 2012-2017 therefore seem similar but the 2023 results published by Citepa are not yet consolidated, they are “pre-estimates”. They are therefore not calculated in exactly the same way as the data for the period 2012-2017. Furthermore, Citepa, contacted by franceinfo, warns that making this type of comparison over time is not relevant.

The influence of rising energy prices

Greenhouse gas emissions depend on multiple factors. It is difficult to attribute a single cause to a drop or increase in emissions. In particular, cyclical factors play an important role. When it’s mild in winter, we turn down the heating. When the price at the pump rises, we try to drive less. Over the past two years and the start of the war in Ukraine, energy prices have exploded and consumption has fallen. Electricity consumption, for example, fell by 3% over the year 2023, according to RTE. This explains a good part of the recent drop in emissions, as Citepa specifies in its latest report.

The public policies put in place also have an effect on emissions but in the more or less long term. It is difficult to measure the precise effect and the exact date from which measures take effect. Concerning the energy renovation of buildings, for example, which makes it possible to reduce emissions, a major renovation plan was launched in 2013. An effort continued by subsequent governments. Climate measures are also often decided at the level of the European Union. It is therefore difficult to attribute the good results solely to the policy pursued by the current government.