“The economic crisis is disappearing.” The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire praised, Monday, January 24, the results of the five-year term of Emmanuel Macron in terms of employment in particular. “One million jobs have been created in the last five years”, assured the minister at the microphone of franceinfo. Is the figure he gives correct? What reality does it reflect?
L’“magnitude” of one million jobs created since 2017 is correct, confirms to franceinfo Vladimir Passeron, head of the Department of Employment and earned income at INSEE. In detail, 764,500 salaried jobs, public and private, were created between the beginning of 2017 and the end of December 2019, according to quarterly data from INSEE. In 2020, under the effect of the health crisis, the dynamic was reversed and nearly 315,000 salaried jobs were destroyed.
The approximately 576,000 salaried job creations recorded during the first three quarters of 2021 have however “more than compensated” these destructions, notes INSEE in its note on the economy published in December. Between the beginning of 2017 and the end of September 2021 – date of the latest INSEE data available – around 1.03 million salaried jobs were therefore created. A figure to which must be added 246,000 self-employed jobs created between 2017 and 2020, according to the latest count from INSEE.
How to interpret these data? By first considering the economic context that Emmanuel Macron inherited. When he arrived at the Elysée, in the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate was 9.5%. It stabilized at 8.1% in the third quarter of 2021, according to INSEE. Gold, “the dynamics of the labor market were already rather favorable” before 2017, recalls Vladimir Passeron. The downward trend had started since mid-2015, under the presidency of François Hollande.
In this favorable situation at the start of the five-year term, it seems difficult to assess whether the first government reforms, such as that of the Labor Code, played a role in the job creations recorded before the health crisis. “Everything is multifactorial in the labor market“, summarizes the economist Eric Heyer, labor market specialist with the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE).
The health crisis and the confinements then brought a sharp halt to this dynamic. In 2020, thehe French economy experienced its first net job losses since the 2008-2009 economic crisis, explains INSEE in a note published in October 2021. With 135,000 fewer salaried jobs during the year, accommodation -catering is the sector of activity that has paid the heaviest price. Around 70,000 jobs were also destroyed in “other service activities”, a category which notably includes cultural and leisure activities.
In total, in 2020, “just over 1% of salaried employment” was destroyed, calculates Vladimir Passeron. However, this figure must be interpreted in the light of the 8% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period.
“Usually, in a situation of recession in activity, that is to say a very sharp drop in activity, the decline in employment is of the same magnitude. However, in 2020, there was a gap between the decline in activity and that of employment.
Vladimir Passeron, statistician at INSEEat franceinfo
Put another way, “employment has not adjusted to the shock to activity”, adds economist Eric Heyer. The “whatever the cost” has limited the impact of the pandemic on the labor market, assure the experts interviewed by franceinfo. “The difference with the economic crisis of 2008 is that the government has massively resorted to partial unemployment”, explains Eric Heyer. Companies have been encouraged to keep as many employees as possible to limit job losses. At the height of the crisis, in April 2020, 8.4 million employees benefited from this system, according to figures from the management of research, studies and statistics (Dares).
The year 2021 was then marked by a “catching up” on the job creation front, engages Vladimir Passeron. Driven by the resumption of growth, the gradual lifting of health restrictions, in particular administrative closures, salaried employment was at the end of September “significantly above its level at the end of 2019”, according to the INSEE economic note published in October.
“By symmetry, employment has mainly returned to its pre-crisis level in the sectors where it had fallen the most”, completes Vladimir Passeron. Thus, 470,000 jobs were created in the commercial service sector during the first three quarters.
These figures illustrate “a political choice”, observes Eric Heyer, who recalls that “The government’s desire was above all to maintain employment” during the health crisis. Between March 2020 and August 2021, the government has estimated the cost of business support measures at 240 billion euros, of which one-third are grants and two-thirds are loans.
“The counterpart of these saved jobs are the deficits and the deterioration of public finances”, argues the economist. The French public deficit widened to 9.2% of GDP in 2020 and should be around 7% in 2021, against 3.1% before the health crisis. For now, the government is showing itself “careful” in the management of these deficits. “I prefer that we take the time to return to balance rather than stifling growth and employment”, justified the Minister of Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, on South Radio.
In addition to the consequences on public finances, other nuances must also be made. Not all sectors of activity have seen net job creations over the past five years. The industrial decline continued with the loss of 16,000 salaried jobs between the start of 2017 and the end of September 2021, even if this drop is much less marked than in the previous period (about 147,000 fewer jobs, between the start of 2012 and the end of September 2016).
In addition, the most precarious workers, on fixed-term and temporary contracts, are those who have suffered the most from the repercussions of the health crisis. “With the partial activity scheme, companies have been encouraged to keep as many employees as possible, and it is those on permanent contracts who have benefited the most”, emphasizes Vladimir Passeron. Yes “Inequalities in terms of employment are partially reduced”, “workers, young people, the least qualified remain much more exposed to unemployment”, notes the Observatory of Inequalities in an analysis published on 18 January. In addition, “the unemployment rate indicator does not say everything about the reality of work”, believes Louis Maurin, director of the Observatory of Inequalities.
“Unemployment, which brings together the precariousness rate, unemployment and the halo of unemployment [qui regroupe les personnes qui souhaitent travailler sans être considérées au chômage], remains at a high level.”
Louis Maurin, Director of the Observatory of Inequalitiesat franceinfo
Overall, the labor market continues to “crack” Between “unstable”, Who “alternate between fixed-term and temporary contracts” and “employees who hold stable jobs”, wrote the Observatory in July 2021.
Finally, it is still too early to anticipate the effects of the gradual disappearance of aid to businesses. If the government whistled the end of “whatever it costs” in August, sectoral measures are still in force, in particular for nightclubs closed until February 16. “The day when we completely get out of these aid devices, we will see the real addition. For the moment, we cannot answer it with certainty”, says Eric Heyer.
“After its very strong rebound” in 2021, employment should still “progress but slowing down, like economic activity”, anticipates INSEE in its December economic report. But the statistical institute wants to be cautious: for the time being, a “significant uncertainty remains as to the employment forecast scenario at the end of the crisis”.