For their spring offensive, the Ukrainian armed forces formed a corps of brigades of about 50,000 men.
Is Ukraine finally ready to launch its spring offensive against Russian forces? Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiï Reznikov expressed confidence on Friday, April 28, during a press conference: “The equipment has been promised, prepared and partially delivered. In a broad sense, we are ready.” And to add: “Preparations are coming to an end (…) When God wills, [quand il y aura] the weather and the decision of the commanders, we will do it.”
>> War in Ukraine: follow the latest information live
What exactly is the state of the Ukrainian army before this counter-offensive mentioned for months? Does it have the capacity to take back the territories still in the hands of Russia? Franceinfo has sought the advice of military experts for an inventory of the Ukrainian armed forces.
An army of nearly 700,000 soldiers
While it only had 196,000 in beginning of the conflictthe Ukrainian army in July 2022 had about 700,000 soldiers, according to an estimate of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. During this first year of war, the Ukrainian armed forces nevertheless suffered “heavy losses”notes Stéphane Audrand, consultant specializing in armaments.
It’s hard to get a precise figure, but according to a leaked US Army documents, 17,500 Ukrainian soldiers were killed during the conflict. Including the wounded, Ukrainian casualties would amount to approximately “80,000 men”, believes Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst. Certain categories of personnel seem to have been particularly affected. “There could possibly be a shortage of non-commissioned officers”points out Stéphane Audrand.
A corps of attack brigades of 50,000 men
Despite these losses, the Ukrainian army managed to preserve its offensive potential. “The Ukrainians kept their ‘usual’ army at the front to form a second army in reserve” for the next offensive, says defense expert Xavier Tytelman. For the Battle of Bakhmoutthe Ukrainian army employed “territorial forces rather than elite units” to defend the city, emphasizes Stéphane Audrand.
Thus preserving its forces, the Ukrainian army formed a corps of twelve attack brigades “specifically formed during this winter for the counter-offensive. That is about 50,000 men”, assesses Ulrich Bounat. These brigades are particularly trained in the combined arms maneuver. “That is to say the coordination between artillery, armour, aviation and ground troops”, a key capability for the success of complex and deep offensives. Nine of these twelve brigades were trained by NATO, revealed its secretary general, Jens StoltenbergApril 27. “These units were trained to NATO standard, their level is equivalent to that of European armies” comments Xavier Tytelman. Thousands of soldiers have been trained in this way “in Poland, Germany or the United Kingdom on Western equipment”also reminds Ulrich Bounat.
98% of Western weapons delivered
To launch its offensive, the Ukrainian army will be able to count on the weapons promised by the West. According to the Secretary General of NATO, Ukraine received “98% of the military aid promised by the West”. In total, “1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks and lots of ammunition” have been delivered. “The Ukrainian army has better armament than in September 2022, when it successfully launched its offensives in Izium” in eastern Ukraine, says Xavier Tytelman.
The Ukrainian air force was also reinforced. “It has, thanks to Western deliveries, more planes than at the beginning of the war”, notes the expert. The United States has also distributed Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits, which will allow Ukrainian planes to launch guided bombs. “Perhaps this is a sign that Ukrainian aviation will be able to take on a more important role”predicts Stéphane Audrand.
“A single-shot pistol”?
A big unknown remains: the state of ammunition stocks. “We don’t have a lot of data on how many shells the Ukrainian Armed Forces have,” explains Stéphane Audrand. There US Army document leak revealed that the Ukrainian army may eventually run out of anti-aircraft missiles. “The ammunition shortages that we saw in Bakhmout, for example, are probably not representative of the overall situation”nevertheless tempers Ulrich Bounat. “The Ukrainians apparently wanted” save their ammunition, precisely in view of this counter-offensive. “The Americans also delivered Patriot missiles” to strengthen anti-aircraft defense, adds Xavier Tytelman.
The Ukrainian army probably has the capacity to launch a large-scale offensive. However, such an operation should be carried out with caution. “We have undoubtedly reached the end of the regenerative capacities of the Ukrainian army and Western countries will not be able to deliver such quantities of weapons again for a long time.” This offensive could therefore be “one shot gun”warns Stéphane Audrand.