Do not turn off your television right away.
The start of the Liberal government’s mandate should be less boring than its Speech from the Throne.
To be expected: a health battle with Quebec and Ontario, and headaches due to the deficit and inflation.
Two long months after the last election, Justin Trudeau has finally put Parliament back to work. No surprises in the priorities formulated on Tuesday.
As promised, his government promises to ban conversion therapy as well as anti-vaccine demonstrations near health facilities. He also wants to offer 10 days of sick leave to federal workers. And it will extend aid programs linked to the pandemic, while tightening their access.
That should keep him busy until the Christmas break. It should then start the year by tabling bills in particular to impose the repurchase of assault weapons, to force the web giants to finance and promote Canadian culture and, finally, to protect official languages in minority situations. .
Those who listened to the speech with a calculator will have noticed that there were four times as many words in English as in French.
But hey, Governor General Mary Simon, whose mother tongue is Inuktitut, is already doing better than the boss of Air Canada – after a few months on the job, she learned to pronounce sentences in Vigneault’s language.
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So much for the legislative menu in Ottawa. But the hardest job will be outside the House of Commons. In health and economics.
Even though it seemed interminable – time is relative, is it not – the Speech from the Throne was shorter than its predecessors. He was moreover especially interesting for his omissions.
A few obscure passages dealt with health and the cost of living. Not being trained in divination, I do not dare to interpret them too much. Let’s just say this: it will be complicated.
In 2022, Quebec (October) and Ontario (June) will be in elections. The two largest provinces in the country are expected to table a budget towards the end of the winter. They will have to quantify their future deficits. François Legault and Doug Ford do not want to be accused of preparing cuts. However, if Ottawa does not increase the health transfer, they will have to make painful choices.
Mr. Trudeau maintains the vagueness. Despite pressure from the Bloc, he refuses to say when the next meeting with the provinces will be held.
The Liberals want to impose new standards on them. However, it would be daring to demand to do better without additional funding.
In economics, it will also be sporty.
During the election campaign, Justin Trudeau did not talk about inflation. He admitted “not thinking” about monetary policy. It is primarily the responsibility of the Bank of Canada, he explained. However, the Bank’s mandate must be renewed in the coming weeks. Should we ask him to aim for an inflation of around 2%? Should she change this target? Add other objectives, particularly in terms of employment and inequalities? If the Prime Minister has any idea, he hides it well.
To curb the rise in the cost of living, the Liberals are relying on their excellent pan-Canadian child care program and their housing promises. True, parents’ bills will decrease, but this does not affect Quebec, which already has its own network. And that will not change anything for Canadians who do not have young children.
As for housing, helping first-time buyers will only stimulate demand, and therefore raise prices. The solution feeds the problem.
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Despite his minority mandate, Justin Trudeau is in a relative position of strength.
The opposition parties denounced the futility of the last elections. They will therefore not dare to provoke new ones. The New Democratic Party will push Mr. Trudeau a little further to the left. And if he does not want to venture too far, he can negotiate with the Bloc Québécois.
As for the Conservative Party, it is at war with itself. Its leader, Erin O’Toole, is trying to survive the onslaught of his small minority of diehard social conservatives who innovate every day in the field of self-bananization and other public immolations.
Nevertheless, this favorable context will not be eternal. Because if we look at it closely, this government is starting to show traces of rust.
A year ago, the Liberals announced several ambitious reforms. Their new mandate will no longer be to launch big ideas. Rather, it will be used to achieve them.
In many cases, this will be laborious. For example, it is not clear exactly how fossil fuel emissions will be capped or how subsidies to the sector will be phased out. And reconciliation with the First Nations can be seen more in rhetoric than in actions.
Trudeau’s third term will be about making these commitments a reality. But after promising so much, it’s hard not to disappoint.
This is how we measure the wear and tear of a government: in the number of disappointed hopes. Corrosion is a slow, but irreversible process.