Towards the French presidential election | The big question of abstention

If the polls are right, the French presidential election could reach record abstentions in France. The phenomenon is not new, but seems to be getting worse from poll to poll, to the point that community organizations are hitting the streets to convince voters to exercise their right to vote. The Press followed them to Roubaix, the champion city of abstentionism, while the idea of ​​electronic voting is beginning to make its way in France.

“People feel left out”

Bright sunshine over Roubaix. It is 4 p.m., mothers are waiting for their little ones after school. Children play on a slide. Workers repair a hole.

In the middle of this scene which could not be more everyday, a group of women is agitated. Leaflets in hand, they approach passers-by with a pleasant smile. The conversation begins. We talk politics. “Are you going to vote? You should, your voice matters! »

Today is the last day to register on the electoral lists for the presidential election. Fatiha Touimi and her team of volunteers are hard at work convincing residents of the Camus district not to shun the ballot, the first round of which is scheduled for April 10.

These community workers do not belong to any party. Their mission is simply to educate residents about the importance of exercise, regardless of political sensitivities. If necessary, they will help them fill out the documents, and even accompany them to the town hall or the post office to drop off their form.

Nothing new as far as Roubaix is ​​concerned. Considered one of the poorest cities in France, this agglomeration of 96,000 inhabitants, neighboring Lille (northern France), is recognized as a champion of abstention. In the 2017 presidential election, the city had reached new heights, with a turnout of just over 60% for the two rounds of the election.

The precariousness of a population made up mostly of immigrants, in this region devastated by deindustrialization, largely explains this disengagement, explains Fatiha Touimi. Unemployment can exceed 50% in some areas of the city, the feeling of social exclusion is a reality here.

“People feel left out. They don’t rely on politics to find a job. They have other, more down-to-earth concerns,” simply sums up Ms.^me Touimi.

Mistrust and disinterest

But the problem is no longer limited to Roubaix. In recent years, abstention has been gaining ground everywhere in France. And the next election does not seem likely to be an exception.

An Odoxa poll, published in mid-January, reveals that about three out of ten French people “are not interested” in this presidential election and that only 70% intend to vote.

“It would be huge,” said Olivier Ihl, professor of politics at the University of Grenoble, referring to this record figure.

According to Mr. Ihl, there is no doubt that abstention will be an “essential issue” of the next presidential election. If there is little doubt about the re-election of Emmanuel Macron – and even less since the start of the war in Ukraine – the whole question will be to know which of his opponents will suffer the most from this desertion from the polls and whether the young president will be “ well” elected, that is to say with a turnout that would leave no doubt about his legitimacy.

A historically low turnout would also confirm a trend that has been observed for more than 30 years in France, where abstention has only increased, rising from 14 to 25% from 1981 to 2017.

The phenomenon is even more spectacular in the local elections: in 2021, the regional elections reached nearly 67% abstention, while the municipal elections of 2020 bordered on 60% non-participation, results which caused serious shock wave among observers and the political class.

COVID-19 is undoubtedly no stranger to these statistics, admits Jean-Yves Dormagen, professor of politics at the University of Montpellier and founder of the Cluster 17 site, which analyzes the electoral trends of the French.

But for this expert on abstention, the malaise stems from deeper “structural transformations”, observed over the past three decades.

“There are sociological, demographic and cultural factors that can contribute to the phenomenon. Mobility, more important. The more anonymous urban lifestyle favors a kind of individualism. Voting is seen less and less as a duty. »

Context doesn’t help, he adds. The poorer, younger or less qualified populations, historically abstaining, are more suspicious than ever of the political elites, on the left as on the right.

As in Roubaix, this mistrust translates into disinterest and rejection of democratic exercise.

“People don’t feel represented. They tend to think that changes in majority do not cause big political changes,” adds Jean-Yves Dormagen.

Will the phenomenon be long-lasting? One thing is certain, more and more French people say they are attracted to new forms of democracy. In the absence of convincing reforms, it is possible that abstention will continue to impose itself on the political landscape as the expression of a general lack of interest.

One person at a time

For her part, Fatiha Touimi will continue to walk the streets of Roubaix with the Servir Committee team, with the aim of reversing the trend.

“We go one person at a time,” she says, philosophically.

Hope is perhaps allowed. On the day of our visit, the community worker made a convert before our eyes.

Originally from Algeria, Linda Shelbi had not voted once since arriving in France 19 years ago. She was already thinking of registering on the lists, but had not yet taken the plunge. The arguments of M.^me Touimi ended up convincing her.

“There are more and more candidates against us [les musulmans]. The rise of the far right. Racism is increasingly visible. This time, I said to myself: maybe my voice can count. This is the case for many people around me,” she explains.

Small step for democracy, big stride for M^me Touimi. Who does not, however, intend to stop there.

“I will go to the streets until the day before the vote. The work is never done. It is not easy. But if we don’t, who will? »

Electronic voting, the solution?

Emmanuel Macron had made it a promise of his first five-year term. But the measure, like many others, has been put on hold.

Many people in France, however, believe that electronic voting would be a remedy for the problem of abstention. Simple equation: a facilitated electoral process would increase voter turnout.

In addition to the practical advantage for voters of no longer having to travel and being able to vote at any time, this measure would be good for the environment (less travel, less paper) and would offer an excellent alternative to counting voting manual.

There are also those who brandish the argument of the health crisis: voting from home means having the possibility of not being exposed to possible viruses.

Despite everything, electronic voting is far from unanimous.

Its detractors brandish the dangers of digital technology, with its security flaws. Hacking, viruses, bugs, data leaks and voter authentication are all threats to such a system.

In short, it’s a false good idea, believes Jean-Yves Dormagen, professor at the University of Montpellier.

“It will not solve all the problems, far from it, explains this abstention specialist. Because the French electoral system further aggravates the situation. There are approximately 6 million French people who have moved and are not registered at the correct address. They either have to move or make a power of attorney, which complicates things. This registration problem mechanically increases abstention and in particular that of young people. »

Mr. Dormagen recognizes that electronic voting would have its advantages, especially for new generations, who are more comfortable with technology. But it would not solve the fundamental problem, which is that of mistrust and lack of interest in politics.

For the moment, only French people living abroad – including those from Quebec – can vote by internet, but not for the presidential election.

Some countries, such as Belgium, Brazil, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland or Norway, have also tried the experiment on a more or less large scale. But the tests proved inconclusive. Either fraud was observed or the effects on the participation rate were minimal.

Estonia is so far the only real leader in this area, with 44% of the votes having been recorded by internet during the 2019 general elections in this small Baltic country. But it has only 1.3 million inhabitants and shines with the almost total digitization of its government functions.

In Canada and Quebec, studies are being conducted in this direction. But the system is still not implemented.