Towards a severe conservative rout

Worn out by power after 14 years of a tormented reign, the British Conservative Party is in the process of being driven out by an electorate exasperated by the economic and social situation in which the kingdom finds itself.

The polls are clear. Unanimous. Crystal clear. Barring a spectacular turnaround, the Labour Party is expected to win hands down in the British general election on Thursday, making Keir Starmer, 61, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

According to a YouGov survey published on June 19, the Labour leader could win 425 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, 223 more than in the 2019 elections. On the other hand, the Tories are predicted to win no more than 108 seats, or even 72, and even 53 (!) according to other polls, which would in any case constitute a historic defeat for the no less historic party of Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill.

Worse: a study by the Savanta institute, for the newspaper The Telegraphclearly gives the Conservative Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, losing in his constituency of Richmond, in Yorkshire (north of England) against the Labour Party, an unprecedented situation for a head of government. Enough to make him regret having called these early elections six months earlier than planned.

Breakdown of the trust bond

These clear results can be explained firstly by a total rejection of the Conservative Party, worn down by power after 14 years of a tormented, sometimes chaotic, often contested reign.

For a majority of Britons, the Tories are largely held responsible for the economic and social situation in which the country finds itself, while the population has to deal with inflation (which is falling), rising energy prices, a housing crisis, as well as struggling public services and a deficient health system, the consequences of draconian budget cuts.

The party is also being blamed for its handling of Brexit, a project which has “probably exacerbated” all these problems, Mr.^me Ellis: While it is difficult to quantify the consequences, it is clear that this divorce from the European Union has had “very few of the expected benefits”, adds Mark Wickham-Jones, professor of political science at the University of Bristol.

Add to this the setbacks related to the management of the pandemic, including the famous Partygate (parties held at former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s residence in the midst of health restrictions), as well as the stock market panic caused by the economic measures decreed by his successor Liz Truss, and you have all the ingredients for a disaster to come.

“It was an extraordinarily disappointing period,” hisses Mark Wickham-Jones. “The electorate came to believe that they could no longer trust the Conservative Party.”

The post-Corbyn refocus

We should not overlook, moreover, the spectacular comeback of the Labour Party, which has managed to reinvent itself in a short space of time.

The party was soundly defeated in the 2019 election, largely due to the repulsive effect of its leader Jeremy Corbyn, who was seen as far too left-wing and whose years of leadership were marred by controversies linked to a certain culture of anti-Semitism within the party.

His successor, Keir Starmer, a former lawyer, has worked hard since 2020 to “re-establish credibility” for the party in the eyes of a more moderate electorate, adopting a less radical discourse and removing elements considered extreme, starting with Corbyn himself, who will run this year as an independent in the constituency of Islington North, in the greater London area.

However, for Thibaud Harrois, there is no doubt that this “refocusing” operation will bring back to the fold Labour voters who had temporarily turned away from the party.

Labour is certainly not giving up its socialist roots, still presenting itself as the party of workers and “ordinary people”. Starmer wants to give oxygen to a public health system that is out of breath and to hire thousands of new teachers. But at the same time he promises his country “the biggest economic growth in the G7”, and assures that he will not increase consumption taxes or income tax, and will limit his investment in public services.

The Labour leader also says he is in favour of strengthening military defence, controlling immigration (even if he intends to abandon the plan to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda), increasing security in the country, and he clearly has no intention of going back on the Brexit implemented by the Conservatives, the wounds and divisions on this subject not yet having healed in the country.

Return of the “third way”?

This new approach does not necessarily please his left-wing electorate. Some criticize him for an overly ambitious economic policy and a program with too conservative overtones. Others describe him outright as a “conservative disguised as a Labor Party”, because of certain positions considered too far to the right.

Catherine Ellis nevertheless believes that the Labour leader has succeeded in “distancing” his party from the Corbyn years by presenting “a more united and responsible party, less ideological and more pragmatic” which, according to her, is more in tune “with the concerns of today’s voters”.

This change of direction was perhaps necessary, she adds, in order to allow the party to regain power. The historian mentions among other things the 1997 election, when Tony Blair, Labour’s superstar, won very convincingly with his attractive, more central “third way”, paving the way for 10 years of Labour rule.

A sign of the times: Scotland could also succumb to the predicted Labour tidal wave. The Scottish National Party (SNP, pro-independence, left-wing) currently controls 43 of the 59 constituencies in the land of Scotch. But the party has lost ground since the departure of its charismatic leader Nicola Sturgeon, and polls now show it trailing Labour, which dominated the region until 2010. The latest seat projection from the Ipsos institute gives the SNP only 15 seats, while highlighting the small gap in votes with Labour, with both parties standing at 36% of voting intentions.

With Agence France-Presse