The new Israeli strikes on Rafah, combined with decisions by international courts, accentuate the risk of isolation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. When the bombs stop raining and Gazans have mourned their dead by the tens of thousands, what will remain of the ruined field of peace in the Middle East? This conflict risks taking with it the hope of peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians and weakening the alliances necessary for the stability of the State of Israel.
We cannot ignore the twisted logic of Hamas, a terrorist group which unleashed its murderous hatred on Israeli civilians during the attack on October 7. This modern-day pogrom left nearly 1,200 dead and 252 hostages, forever altering Israeli consciousness and its sense of security.
The neutralization of Hamas is a prerequisite for peace between the two peoples, but certainly not the only one. The merciless Israeli offensive has not produced the expected effects so far. Despite the 36,000 deaths, the majority of them civilians (according to data from the Ministry of Health of the Gaza Strip), the Hamas command has not been eradicated, the sponsor of the October 7 attack is still at large and the 121 hostages still alive are not about to regain their freedom.
It is a fiasco for a coalition corrupted by the far right in the Knesset. An extreme right which openly harbors ambitions to return to the colonization of Gaza and which has lost the sense of proportionality in its military response. The evolution of the diplomatic response and the decisions of international courts reflect a growing unease with the strategy of the Netanyahu government, deaf to humanitarian considerations.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau supported Israel’s right to retaliate in the aftermath of the attack. In recent days, he said he was “horrified” by the strikes on Rafah, which left at least 45 civilians dead in a displaced persons camp. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he regretted this “tragic accident”. Mr. Trudeau reiterated his support for an immediate ceasefire, the entry of humanitarian aid and the release of hostages. At the instigation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, Canada also modified its historic position on the two-state solution by saying it was ready to recognize the Palestinian state without the approval of Israel. Spain, Norway and Ireland have taken a step further by officially recognizing the State of Palestine.
The response from international courts comes from the same surge of indignation. The International Court of Justice (ICJ), initially reluctant to demand a ceasefire, is now calling on Israel to immediately stop the bombings. The International Criminal Court (ICC) also submitted requests to obtain arrest warrants for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Prime Minister Netanyahu, his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant , and Hamas leaders.
Finally, American President Joe Biden expressed his frustration at the lack of a plan for the post-conflict in Gaza from Mr. Netanyahu. Two influential ministers in the Israeli war cabinet, Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz, agreed with him. As part of an unauthorized visit to Washington, Mr. Gantz expressed his fears about the humanitarian crisis which threatens the population of Gaza with famine. The aura of the end of the regime hangs over this visit from a pretender who wants to be less subservient to biblical messianism than Mr. Netanyahu.
All of these gestures, which have a heavy symbolic value on the diplomatic level, expose Israel to the risk of isolation from its Western allies, even though this country is much more valuable than its outspoken extremists. The State of Israel is a democratic rarity in a region of the globe that too easily accommodates theocracies and petromonarchies. He needs support, but not at the cost of blindness to the disruption of the military intervention and the humanitarian crisis which places the Gaza Strip on the verge of collapse.
Between the return of colonization desired by the far right and the military occupation of Gaza, there does not seem to be any alternative solution in Benjamin Netanyahu’s post-conflict vision. Moreover, this provides for the continuation of the military operation until the end of the year. Israel’s allies cannot count on the current prime minister to make room for the Palestinian Authority and moderate factions on the Palestinian side in the search for lasting peace.
There is no moral equivalence between Hamas and the ruling coalition in the Knesset, but both continue to assassinate the empty promise of the Oslo Accords: security for territory. As long as bombs and boots prevail over diplomacy and multilateral cooperation, peace will remain elusive. A ceasefire therefore remains an essential step to stop this destructive cycle.