Towards a return to balance in the resale market

The residential resale market will approach equilibrium next year, predicts the grouping of real estate brokers.

The number of transactions will decrease by 5% in the Montreal area and the median price of a house will drop by 12% compared to the median price of a house in 2022.

The Professional Association of Quebec Real Estate Brokers (APCIQ) presents its 2022 results on Tuesday and unveils its 2023 outlook for the residential real estate market in the province of Quebec as part of its conference Window on the real estate market.

“The island of Montreal, Laval and their outlying regions are markets where the level of prices is difficult to sustain given the purchasing power of households, writes the Association in a press release. Significantly more subdued transaction activity and a potentially stronger return of properties to markets belonging to these regions are to be expected. »

Resales, which fell by 21% in 2022, will drop by 5% in 2023 when they will reach the number of 40,912. Market conditions will remain in favor of sellers, but close to equilibrium.

In the Montreal CMA, the median price of a house will rise to $477,000 in 2023 and that of a condo to $373,000.

Then, a recovery is expected in 2024 in Montreal with the resumption of immigration and thanks to its position as an economic capital.

Quebec absorbs the shock of rising interest rates

As for the province of Quebec, resales will slip by 9%, to 79,702 transactions in 2023. The median price of a house will drop by 5% to reach $392,000.

For the year that is ending, transactions will have decreased by 20% and the median price will have appreciated by 10%, reaching $413,000.

“At this pace, market conditions should remain favorable to sellers or close to equilibrium depending on the market,” said Charles Brant, director of the APCIQ’s market analysis department, in the same press release.

Despite the marked economic slowdown in 2023, and in an inflationary context eroding household confidence and purchasing power, the APCIQ does not foresee a massive return of properties to the market.

“In general, the Quebec market is coping relatively well with the shock of the rise in interest rates,” maintains the organization. The housing deficit, attributable to a delay in construction activity, does not make it possible to cope with the wave of immigration. With the slowdown in housing starts expected for 2022 and 2023, this housing deficit is not about to be reduced. This context will allow a certain stabilization of the market closer to its equilibrium, while avoiding a swing in favor of buyers. »