towards a Nutella shortage?

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If your coffee comes from Brazil and your grains from the United States, the hazelnuts in your spread come from Turkey. The world’s leading exporter, the country alone provides 70% of all the planet’s production thanks to its immense fields of hazel trees planted on the hills on the shores of the Black Sea.

There are over 76,000 fruit growers in Turkey. If we count in addition the workers of packaging factories, the sector supports more than four million people, in often questionable working and traceability conditions. The sector finds itself, like others, a victim of the economic policy of the Turkish president. The question is recurrent. But this time it’s serious.

To boost growth, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken it upon himself to lower interest rates. So the Turkish lira started to fall and at first it worked, exports soared. According to the government they even reached a record level of 21.5 billion dollars in November, an increase of 33.4% compared to the previous year. GDP has hit record highs. Except that the pound has not only fallen, it has started to unscrew: in a year, it has lost almost half of its value.

All imported products (especially energy and raw materials) have therefore become much more expensive. The inflation-producing machine got carried away: + 21% in November alone – official figures that are probably underestimated. The emergency measures announced in disaster on Tuesday, December 21 allowed the pound to regain some color, but basically that did not change much. The general public has seen their savings evaporate, their wages plummet and the cost of food rise. For the most modest, medicines, meat, eggs, even oil and bread have become overpriced.

Hazelnut producers are also in the red: to grow hazelnuts, you need fertilizers. However, they cost three times more than last year. 215 dollars per ton in 2020, 650 this year. Then there is transport: the price of gasoline, paid in dollars on the international market, is reaching new heights.
Once sorted and shelled, they must be packaged in bags which are also imported. Wages are also increasing.
Buyers dealt the final blow by relying on the devaluation of the pound to slash prices. Today, when you buy a kilo of hazelnuts for 20 euros, wholesalers have paid two euros for it. Wholesalers who work for Nestlé, Godiva, and especially the Italian Ferrero (which alone captures a third of Turkish exports).

As a result, tens of thousands of Turkish peasants no longer earn enough to live, the production of hazelnuts is shrinking like hell.

That does not mean, however, that we will no longer be able to find spread in supermarkets, but a consultant quoted by the Wall Street Journal believes that if you are a heavy consumer of Nutella you may have to think about stocking up, because yes the prices are likely to increase, especially without correction of the economic policy (not always coherent) imposed by the Turkish president. Turkish producers fear serial bankruptcies. For the moment, the Ministry of Agriculture is simply pushing them to start processing the product themselves instead of only selling their raw material, which would ensure them a better income. But we’re not there. The shortage looms.

That said, the popularity of the government having fallen at the same time as the currency and the elections looming for 2023 (at the latest), it is possible that Recep Tayyep Erdogan decides to take long-term measures. Next time you bake yourself a toast for breakfast, think about it!


source site-14