towards a new political impasse for Benyamin Netanyahu?

Part of the public criticizes the Israeli Prime Minister for pursuing political tactics at the expense of national interests, the image of the country and the release of hostages according to a specialist in international relations.

American President Joe Biden presented on Friday, May 31, a road map to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, after almost eight months of war and an offensive still underway in Rafah. This plan was presented by Joe Biden as an Israeli initiative.

However, it has divided the political class of the Jewish state and endangers the survival of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government coalition. Two far-right ministers belonging to the coalition threatened to resign if Benjamin Netanyahu approved the truce. Frédéric Charillon, professor of international relations at the University of Paris Cité and at Essec, answered questions from franceinfo on Sunday June 2.

franceinfo: Will the Israeli Prime Minister necessarily lose some of his support or is there still a third way that would maintain his government alliance?

Frédéric Charillon: First of all, everyone is under a bit of pressure in this matter. And the American president is not the least because he too is caught between support for an ally on one side, and a base of the left of the Democratic Party which is putting pressure on him a few months before the American presidential election. There is therefore a sort of escalation between the different actors who are all under pressure.

Then, can Netanyahu still get away with it? It is always possible, but at the same time, this is what he is increasingly accused of in Israel, of sacrificing national interests, including the image of the country. Above all, part of the public accuses him of drawing a line under the hostages to favor his political survival. In a way, here too, it is an insoluble dilemma for him: even if he still found a way to get out of it and rebuild a coalition or preserve a coalition, he would still be criticized because of this image he has of a political tactician for his own political survival, perhaps at the expense of national interests.

This means that these two far-right ministers, Itamar Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security and Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, who are lobbying these days, are dictating Israeli policy?

They do not dictate it because Benjamin Netanyahu himself has been hostile to any peace agreement for a very long time. He has been hostile to any recognition of a Palestinian state for almost thirty years. He did not need these ministers to be on this line himself. However, the Israeli electoral system is an extremely advanced proportional system where you are forced to deal with several parties to have a majority. So obviously, the more composite the coalition, the more fragile it is. We are in a moment of great national and international tension so it is even more difficult.

If these two ministers leave, will early elections be called?

Not if they are replaced because it is less a question of people than a question of parties in government and Parliament. One can imagine that if they leave, it will lead to support that can effectively bring down the coalition.

However, Benjamin Netanyahu is still under great pressure to accept this agreement. Even if it is not public, we can imagine the insistence of the United States. Joe Biden, too, is in some way gambling on his political future. Additionally, you now have other countries in the region as well as European countries supporting the deal. Finally, the leader of the Israeli opposition Yaïr Lapid and another part of the Israeli political spectrum also accept this agreement. It is therefore a rather uncomfortable position for the Israeli Prime Minister.

Benjamin Netanyahu is invited to Washington in the medium term to speak to the American Congress. Can he deprive himself of the support of the White House?

It is indeed very difficult for Israel to deprive itself of the support of the Western world in general. The Israeli Prime Minister tried to play the card of the man who, against all odds, wants to continue hitting Hamas, and continue alone if necessary. It is not certain that this is entirely realistic. Israeli negotiators who are following the file on the ground to try to free the hostages seem a little desperate by the attitude of the Prime Minister according to leaks that we have read in the press. They would accuse Benjamin Netanyahu of sabotaging the negotiations. Thus, it gives the impression that even in Israeli society, discontent and pressure are growing stronger.