The “sovereignty-federalism” and “left-right” clashes over state intervention have taken a back seat behind the so-called “liberal-authoritarian” divide, to the advantage of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ ) and Quebec solidaire (QS).
“The position of the CAQ on the question of immigration, obviously, favored the party [de François Legault]. But we can see that the environment — which is another issue associated with the liberal-authoritarian divide — has favored Québec solidaire,” summarizes political science professor Éric Bélanger (McGill University) during a symposium held this week by the Équipe research on immigration in Quebec and elsewhere.
The liberal-authoritarian ideological divide has emerged over the past two decades or so in Western democracies that have been shaken by the “eddies” of globalization: increased migration flows, environmental deterioration, and so on. “The context carries these issues, and some political parties are able to recover and activate them,” adds political science professor Valérie-Anne Mahéo (Laval University).
In this confrontation between the liberals and the authoritarians, the CAQ has, for the moment, the upper hand over QS.
“One of the keys to the CAQ’s success in recent years is to have fully grasped the climate of opinion in Quebec,” maintains Éric Bélanger, after co-writing with Valérie-Anne Mahéo, Jean-François Daoust (University of ‘Edinburgh) and Richard Nadeau (University of Montreal) the work to be published The new Quebec voter (PUM).
Ahead of the 2018 election, Francois Legault’s political party took “a position that aligns with the majority” — and is popular with older, less-educated people — proposing to “take fewer” immigrants , but to “take care” of them, and to ensure that they integrate into Quebec society – its language and its values - by means of an “examination”, but also to legislate to prohibit the wearing of religious symbols among certain State employees.
“Obviously, this was part of a strategy on the part of the CAQ to, during the 2018 elections, capture a larger group of voters who were potentially culturally and linguistically anxious”, underlines for his part. political science professor Mireille Paquet (Concordia University).
His colleague Antoine Bilodeau (Concordia University) worked to establish the list of tasks to be accomplished by any immigrant, in order of importance, according to Quebecers: “learning to speak French, adopting Quebec values, becoming financially independent , to be accepted by other Quebecers, to designate themselves as Quebecers, to make Quebec friends, to participate in Quebec society”.
Do immigrants meet the expectations of Quebecers? he later wondered. “What is particularly interesting or disturbing is that the most important priorities, namely learning French and adopting Quebec values, are not evaluated very positively by the population,” indicates Antoine Bilodeau. On the other hand, “we judge that immigrants make a lot of friends from Quebec, but fundamentally, that leaves us completely indifferent,” he adds in passing.
For an assimilationist model
“Paradox”: even if they place linguistic “integration” at the top of their expectations of newcomers, Quebecers are concerned “first and foremost” to see them successfully integrate into Quebec values. By linking data, Antoine Bilodeau also noticed that the expectations of Quebecers in this regard vary according to the region of origin of the immigrants. “We will want immigrants from the Middle East if we assess that immigrants adopt Quebec values. Conversely, we will not want immigrants from the Middle East if we believe that immigrants do not adopt Quebec values. […] [On va alors] find refuge by asking for more immigration from Europe, presuming […] that this group of immigrants, from the outset, has similar or convergent values with those of Quebec,” he explains.
Neither multiculturalists nor interculturalists, Quebecers argue that immigrants should “blend into Quebec society” rather than “keep their culture” after having embraced Quebec, Antoine Bilodeau has found in his research. ” [On observe] a strong preference for what looks, almost, like… assimilation, if we want to use the real words”, says the professor, also sharing the impression that “in general, the CAQ seems to have understood where it is situated the voters, at least in Quebec”.
In short, the CAQ has every advantage in maintaining the debate on immigration — by denouncing from time to time the passage of dozens of migrants a day through Roxham Road, for example — in order to strengthen its support. “The CAQ will be able to roll over it until the context changes,” argues Professor Éric Bélanger. This context could change if the climate crisis escalates, which would be “promising for a party like QS, which wants to be the standard bearer” in the fight against climate change. “In addition, the younger generation considers this issue to be very important, much more than immigration issues,” he argues.