The melting snow. The budding branches. Maple Leafs fans looking forward to the playoffs. The supporters of the 31 teams who are ironic about yet another early elimination of the Maple Leafs.
Spring invariably arrives with its share of traditions. If there’s one Toronto players want to break, it’s their inability to reach the second round of the playoffs.
Yet another reminder: Over the past 17 seasons, the Maple Leafs have either missed the playoffs (10 times) or stumbled in the first round (seven times, including six in a row).
In 2021 and 2022, we thought we had assembled a war machine capable of going a long way. However, in 2021 as in 2022, it was the story of seven games and a handshake.
Manager Kyle Dubas has worked hard to break the cycle. At the cost of multiple draft picks and young players in the organization, he added leadership (Ryan O’Reilly), aggressiveness (Noel Acciari, Sam Lafferty) and defensive reinforcements (Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, Erik Gustafsson). Among the skaters, we are ready to take the next step.
In goal, the level of confidence is… different. Last summer, Dubas gave a clean sweep by parting ways with Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek, replaced at low cost by Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray.
The first was very good. His stats are more like the goalie the Washington Capitals drafted in the first round in 2015 than the same Capitals fired a few months ago.
Murray, he was drinkable when he was healthy … that is to say not often. Two injuries have cost him some 25 games, and now he has a head injury. Head coach Sheldon Keefe wouldn’t utter the word “concussion,” but the signs aren’t encouraging.
Who is feeling lucky ?
Assuming that Murray will be ready in time, the question will soon be unavoidable: who, him or Samsonov, will start the first round of the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning?
Samsonov had the duo’s best season, but his playoff resume comes down to seven starts, ending in six losses. Murray is full of experience. His two Stanley Cup rings, while wearing the Pittsburgh Penguins uniform, speak for themselves, although his last years there were far less successful.
The chosen one will have the perilous mission of succeeding where Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell failed from 2017 to 2022: converting a good season into spring success.
Both have borne the brunt of the successive failures of their club. This has sometimes been true…but not all the time.
This is confirmed by the statistics of “saved” goals. This is an indicator derived from the difference between the number of “expected” goals at five against five, calculated according to the dangerousness of the chances of scoring, and the number of actual goals that a goalkeeper has conceded. The higher the value, the more a goalkeeper can be considered to make a difference in a game or a season. Around zero, we will speak of an adequate yield, nothing more. Deep in the negatives, it’s going badly.
The numbers tell us that Andersen has been capable of both good and bad. In 2019, he should have won. The year before he could clearly be blamed – the whole team’s collapse in Game 7 in Boston is still a painful memory in the Queen City.
Jack Campbell, he had been excellent against the Montreal Canadiens in 2021. Last year, he was correct against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was mainly criticized for his performance in overtime: in three appearances totaling just over 35 minutes, he received 8 shots and allowed three goals.
And this year?
What to expect this time in net for the Leafs? It looks like a loot box.
Given the season he’s just had (25-10-5 record, 2.40 goals-against average and .916 save percentage), Ilya Samsonov should logically get the first start.
However, he has only won one of his last five starts and, as already mentioned, his experience under pressure, to date, is slim and inconclusive. We can’t really rely on his history against the Lightning either, a team he has only faced twice in his career, none of which this season with the Leafs.
A misstep on his part could give Matt Murray the chance to assert himself. In which case we will pray for it to find its flame of the beautiful days.
If the two fall apart, one wonders if Joseph Woll, who has been dominant in the American League this season and has looked good in Toronto in a limited sample, will not be brought in.
We come back to it every year, but the patience of the team owners will not last forever with the staff in place, both in management and on the ice.
The big guns finally thundered last spring and they’re salivating at the thought of doing it again. Now it’s the masked men’s turn to show they can steal a streak.
This is obviously easier said than done. But it will have to happen one day.