The great ways. Faced with soaring fuel prices, caused by the war in Ukraine, the government decided to finance a discount of 15 centimes per liter of petrol at the pump. An emergency decision to relieve the household budget, but which will cost the State 2 billion euros and will only last four months.
A costly and temporary solution, therefore, while this is not the first time that France has found itself confronted with such increases in gasoline prices. For researcher Aurélien Bigo, author of a thesis on the energy transition of transport, this crisis illustrates “once again the delay and the lack of ambition in the energy transition of all these last years”. He calls for long-term measures to avoid finding ourselves in the same situation in a few months or a few years.
Franceinfo: What do you think of this government measure on fuel prices?
Aurelien Bigo: There is an inevitable side and a somewhat opportunistic side to the presidential election. It was inevitable to provide an answer to social fears about the household budget. The whole difficulty is to succeed in setting up mechanisms that are socially well targeted. This is not the case here. This reduction is valid for everyone, therefore both for very precarious people, who really need it, and for rich people who will also use gasoline for leisure journeys.
Nor should these measures limit the energy transition of transport. I regret that once again, the decisions to date do not tackle the problem at the root and do not act on the reduction of dependence on oil. It is however the obligatory passage of the energy transition, whether for climatic reasons, for health reasons, with atmospheric pollution, or whether for social reasons, of resilience, with dependence on oil.
What should have been done, beyond aid in relation to the cost of fuel, are also measures which make it possible to accelerate the energy transition, as much as possible, to allow as many people as possible to get out of this dependence and reduce oil consumption. Fifteen cents off doesn’t get them out of addiction at all. This is not a long-term or even medium-term solution, and it is surely unsuitable for the most modest people.
What could the government do in the face of this crisis?
The problem, when you arrive in a period of crisis and you have to manage the emergency, is that many of the transport decarbonization levers have a medium or long-term impact. What we are paying for today is once again the delay and lack of ambition in the energy transition of all these recent years.
“There were the two oil shocks of the 1970s, the surge in oil prices preceding the financial crisis of 2008, the crisis of the yellow vests… If we had acted more seriously and with more anticipation in the face of these crises and the climate emergency, we would be far less vulnerable today.”
Aurelien Bigoat franceinfo
We are paying for the lack of ambition on these subjects. So, in this context of crisis where we hope to get out of dependence on oil in a few weeks when it is a project over several decades, the means of action are necessarily quite limited or imperfect. However, there are a whole bunch of accelerations that can be implemented. But they will not solve all vulnerabilities, so this is where there may be a need for financial support for the most precarious.
What are these measures?
They are of several types. On the demand for transport, the government could have planned a moderation of travel, with teleworking, as with the Covid-19. In the medium term, there are also things to do. For example, the government announces a more targeted mechanism for “big rollers”. If we take the problem at the base, we must start by asking who these big wheelers are and what can be done to get them out of this addiction to long car journeys, to recreate more proximity. Today, we rarely ask ourselves these questions. However, we can find answers, as the start-up 1km on foot does with multi-site companies.
On the modal shift [le changement de mode de transport], during the Covid-19 crisis, the municipalities had accelerated the implementation of cycling facilities, which should be put back on the table. In New Zealand, the government has also cut public transport prices by 50%. [en complément d’une réduction sur les carburants à la pompe, comme le détaille le New Zealand Herald]. When you think of the 2 billion spent on this discount [celle de 15 centimes sur le litre d’essence]we can imagine a whole host of other public policies: extension of the sustainable mobility package in companies, aid for carpooling, etc.
On energy efficiency, there is the only short-term lever: 110 km/h on the motorways. This is the only measure that, overnight, significantly reduces oil consumption and our greenhouse gas emissions. For all the other solutions mentioned above, there is a certain inertia before they lead to reductions in oil consumption at a significant level. The first speed limits (130, 110, 90) were put in place in 1974 after the first oil shock, and the introduction of speed cameras played a part in the drop in transport emissions in the early 2000s Which shows that it is a measure that can be relevant.
This measure had been much criticized when the Citizens’ Convention had proposed it…
Its social acceptability is limited. The latest polls that I have seen gave a little less than 50% of opinions in favor of this measure, nor is there 80% of the population against [selon les chiffres de l’Ademe, qui sonde chaque année depuis 2004 les Français sur cette mesure, le pourcentage de personnes favorables a oscillé entre 56% (2008) et 34% (2014), pour s’établir à 42% en 2021].
Unlike a carbon tax which can make some people fall into precariousness, the 110 km/h limit is a bit of a waste of time, but it leads to savings for households, they are even savings. If we stay within the speed limit, the 30 km/h speed limit indirectly promotes active modes of transport such as cycling or walking, making them safer.
“The last lever is the switch to electric. There can be a whole host of aid to promote conversion to electric. Those that currently exist are not always very well targeted and do not encourage always the most virtuous vehicles.”
Aurelien Bigoat franceinfo
Preference should be given to lighter vehicles, which are also less expensive. Few households have access to the new market and there is an additional cost for the purchase of electricity. In terms of overall cost and usage, the electric car is already competitive compared to thermal, but it requires a basic investment that must be made. There is clearly no perfect solution. It is essential to accelerate today some of these levers which could have significant impacts, in a few weeks, a few months and gradually provide solutions to part of the population.
Once this discount on fuel prices comes to an end, how do you see the future?
For the discount, it will depend on what the presidential election gives. The current government has announced that if it was still in charge, there would be a more targeted device from the end of July. It is important that this be more targeted in the future.
There is great uncertainty about the evolution of the crisis and oil prices. The worst thing would be to say that it will pass and that we can continue as today, at our pace which is largely insufficient for the energy transition. You have to be prepared for prices to remain at high levels or for it to continue to rise.
“We must anticipate the possible measures that can be put in place and avoid public money financing oil-producing countries like Russia. It is financing the problem that we are currently trying to combat.”
Aurelien Bigoat franceinfo
Each time there is a crisis, we are always in the same type of short-term device to cushion and, each time, we fall back into our faults. If certain measures of the Citizen’s Climate Convention had been put in place, we could already have reduced certain vulnerabilities and gained in resilience. Climate change was already reason enough to change our transport habits. There, in the very short term, our transport is partly financing a conflict. This is an additional reason to question this dependence on oil.