India, United Kingdom, Mexico, South Africa… Next year, more than four billion citizens will be called to the polls, making 2024 the biggest electoral year in history.
But wait before raising a glass to the health of democracy. Despite these airs of a great vintage, 2024 could have a taste of vinegar.
First, elections are far from being a guarantee of democracy. In Russia, is there really anyone who doubts that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected for a fifth term? And in North Korea, who would dare believe that Kim Jong-un’s approval rating will not approach 100%?
In fact, out of 76 countries that will hold elections next year, more than a third do not meet the criteria for a truly free vote, according to the index developed by The Economist1.
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Even in countries where elections are not a farce, it is not a foregone conclusion for democracy, in decline worldwide for the sixth year in a row, according to the Swedish institute IDEA.2.
In many democratic countries, increasingly authoritarian leaders are eroding the pillars of democracy by claiming to speak on behalf of the people. We have seen this dangerous trend in Hungary, Poland, Turkey and Israel, for example.
However, this trend risks continuing, in a context where the planet is painfully recovering from the pandemic which caused public debt to explode, inflation to surge and interest rates to rise. Today, governments find themselves stuck with record interest payments at a time when the economy is running dry.
The World Bank has just sounded the alarm: poorer countries are on the precipice, suffocated by interest payments that prevent them from financing their essential services3.
The international community will have to mobilize to reduce their debt. Otherwise, dictatorships will benefit. Already, Russia and China continue to invest to increase their influence, particularly in Africa, where coups are increasing while the population is disillusioned with democracy.
But now, the Western powers are also under pressure. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), public debt in advanced economies has jumped from 81% of GDP in 2000 to 113% of GDP in 2022.
The weight of interest will reduce their room for maneuver to finance generous social programs, which risks creating social tensions. Remember the huge protests against adjustments to pension plans in France.
It is on this fertile ground for populism that the elections to the European Parliament will be held, which will have the appearance of a referendum on the survival of the European Union, if the recent victory in the Netherlands is anything to go by. of the far-right leader Geert Wilders, Europhobe, xenophobic and declared climate skeptic.
But obviously, it is the presidential election in the United States which will have the greatest global impact, because the re-election of Donald Trump would be a game-changer for support for Ukraine, for the fight against climate change, for the migration crisis, for international trade… and for democracy.
That a president led his supporters to attack the Capitol to overturn the election result was terrifying enough. That he can be re-elected is even more so.
If he is declared ineligible or if he loses the election, the reaction of his supporters could shake the country. And if he wins, a Trump 2.0 risks demolishing the checks and balances even more ardently, because he will be much better prepared to take charge than the first time.
No matter the outcome, 2024 will be a critical year for democracy. And it would be naive to believe that Canada and Quebec will be safe.
The work The State of Quebec – What future for democracy? tells us that a third of Quebecers are perplexed about the virtues of our democratic system (18%) or downright fans of a conspiracy theory (15%).
The distortions of our electoral system largely explain the frustration of voters who find that the result of the vote is not representative of their choice. How can we blame them when the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) has an overwhelming majority of seats (72%), despite the support of a minority of voters (41%)?
It’s not healthy. A reform of the voting system is necessary, even if François Legault and Justin Trudeau have reneged on their promise in this regard.
A reform of the Electoral law is also necessary. Should we develop remote voting to increase the participation rate which has fallen? How can we regulate pre-election advertising, which is booming and which is spiraling out of control? Let us hope that Élections Québec’s consultations will make it possible to find promising solutions.4.
If we want to reduce the cynicism of the population, we must dust off parliamentary life. At the moment, question period in the National Assembly resembles a playground where MPs fight their buns instead of looking for solutions to citizens’ problems. Not very edifying.
Finally, we absolutely must ensure that foreign autocracies will no longer interfere with our elections. However, the final recommendations of the Commission on Foreign Interference reluctantly set up by Ottawa will not be known until the end of 2024.
In theory, there will be no elections before 2025 in Ottawa and 2026 in Quebec. But time will be running out to restore voter confidence before the next elections.
Until then, the entire team The Press wishes you an excellent new year 2024!
The position of The Press
Reform of the voting system, Electoral law, parliamentary rules. Measures to counter foreign interference. Ottawa and Quebec have a lot to do to restore confidence in our democratic system before the next elections.