A year ago, right here at the Davos Economic Forum, there was a fear of recession for the whole of Europe. Ultimately, the continent escaped, with a recession all the same in Germany. But Europe as a whole held up quite well.
franceinfo : Christophe Catoir, is this risk of recession behind us today?
Christophe Catoir: So the risk is still there. We see that, particularly on a geopolitical level, there is still a lot of instability. This is never very good for business and for the economy. However, in the very short term, we see that many countries, including France, have indeed escaped this recession. In this economic context, we also see very good resistance in quite a few indicators, employment being one, to which we are very exposed on a daily basis.
Exactly, what does this mean in terms of recruitment?
This means that we have a recruitment market which is still less dynamic than it was a year ago, in the post-Covid phase, where each company, each country wanted to regain the levels of activity before. There was a belief in the future once Covid had passed, we thought we would be back to normal, resuming investment plans.
And today, we are more in a waiting period?
Yes, we see that we clearly have an expectation. So be careful, we don’t have the same news depending on the industries we represent. The expectation is clearly in consumption. We see that inflation has had effects and in this area, players are much more cautious. We also saw a pause in the tech field, after massive investments. Conversely, we see sectors of activity, notably in mobility, tourism, even in the hotel and catering industry, where activity has picked up very strongly. And there, on the other hand, recruitment is going well and we are still talking about the scarcity of candidates and the difficulties in recruiting.
If we now look by geographical area, we know that 2024 will be very rich in elections, with a major election in the United States, also in India, and in Europe. Will this affect recruitment?
Yes, elections always play a role in recruitment. Unfortunately, when an election takes place, there is a pause that occurs in the economy. Knowing that the context can change radically depending on whether one or the other personality will win the election. This is particularly the case in the United States, which experienced a fairly marked drop in activity a little over a year and a half ago. The election will be crucial for the future. We see the same thing today in England. In the United Kingdom, we have important elections. We are talking about a possible alternation, that creates uncertainty. So there is a pause, but probably it can be the signal of a fairly significant economic recovery, which precedes the one that we can then find in Europe.
So a quick focus on France, a market that you know well having managed Adecco France for many years. The unemployment rate in France rises slightly to 7.4% of the active population, in the third quarter of 2023. Is there reason to worry?
Indeed, we can consider that there has been a slowdown in growth. We have seen this in recent quarters. The outlook is for growth of around 1% in 2024. This is not a percentage that will create many jobs. Afterwards, declining demographics also create less pressure on unemployment in France. Nevertheless, the message is above all to remain proactive, that is to say proactive as an economy, as a policy, so as to create conditions which favor investment and which make France a field significant investment.
In Davos, there are many French companies and political figures joining us, including Emmanuel Macron today. This is important because in fact, to create jobs, you need growth. To create growth, there must be confidence in the environment that we can create as a country. France, on an international level, has regained color. Above all, we must not relax our efforts and maintain this environment conducive to investment.
The omnipresent topic at Davos is that of artificial intelligence. One of the great fears is the transformation of the world of work, notably with the elimination of numerous positions. Is this something you see in recruiting? Are there any positions today that have disappeared due to artificial intelligence?
On this subject, there is the rational dimension and the emotional dimension. For the rational dimension, yes, there is a disruption that is real. There are small technological developments and large technological developments, this is a large, even enormous technological evolution. This means that in the way of carrying out the content of a job, there is a high probability, particularly for what we call white-collar workers, that changes will be made to the mission content, and therefore that it will You need to have evolving skills. That’s the reality, there could be job destruction, including in professions that have been created, such as around the moderation of social networks. Now you can partially moderate with technologies. So some professions are impacted by this artificial intelligence, others are native to artificial intelligence.
For me, one of the most important revolutions is the collection of more information than ever before. You will segment your customer base even further, you will do tailor-made services, you will have a service that will be much more important in certain market segments sold at a higher price, you will create jobs.
So you have winners and losers. What’s difficult to read is the pace to follow. If there were to be a single fear, it is at this level. The ability we have to be able to train employees in the new terms of their job. If there is no training, we risk having even greater problems with a scarcity of candidates and people left behind and joining the unemployed, which would be a tragedy. So we have a responsibility as a company in this regard.