Taiwan’s security landscape may hinge on Donald Trump’s potential return to power, raising concerns about the reliability of US support amid rising tensions with China. His first term was marked by strong Taiwanese backing and significant military and trade actions against China. However, recent comments about Taiwan’s semiconductor industry have caused unease. As Taiwan increases military spending and navigates complex US relations, the future remains uncertain, with residents wary of geopolitical challenges rather than optimistic about a ‘golden age.’
The Future of Taiwan’s Security Under Trump
The island nation of Taiwan, facing threats from China, may find itself relying on Donald Trump once again in the coming years. However, questions arise regarding the reliability of the US security guarantee for Taiwan in this scenario.
Reflections on Trump’s First Presidency
During Trump’s initial term, Taiwanese media frequently referred to this period as a ‘Golden Age.’ The support for Trump during the 2020 election was notably strong among the Taiwanese populace. This support stemmed not only from the unprecedented congratulatory call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen to Trump but also from a series of legislative actions that bolstered the unofficial ties between the two nations.
Trump’s administration facilitated Taiwan’s acquisition of advanced military equipment, such as F16 fighter jets and tanks, while also initiating a trade conflict with China that strained the latter’s economy and diverted its political focus.
As tensions rise, China has warned of consequences should Tsai meet with US officials like McCarthy.
Concerns Over Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry
Fast forward to 2024, and much has changed. A recent statement from Trump during a campaign podcast—claiming that “Taiwan has stolen our chip business”—has not been well-received in Taiwan. The pride surrounding its semiconductor industry, particularly TSMC’s global leadership, is a critical aspect of the nation’s prosperity. Trump’s comments were likely a reference to TSMC’s expansion in Arizona in response to the US CHIPS Act, rather than an outright theft.
Despite this, Trump’s skepticism towards Taiwan’s success in the semiconductor sector conflicts with his ‘America First’ ideology, where the dominance of US companies in this field is a priority. However, he is also aware that the US heavily relies on Taiwanese semiconductors for manufacturing essential products like smartphones and cars, putting millions of American jobs at stake.
As Taiwan aims to bolster its defense spending—currently at about 2.5% of its GDP, which exceeds the NATO average—the island is prepared to invest even more in its military. Recent purchases of advanced weaponry from the US, including drones and ground-to-air defense systems, highlight Taiwan’s commitment to self-security amidst uncertainty regarding US military support in the event of a Chinese threat.
In contrast to Trump’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan’s security, President Joe Biden has consistently promised assistance during emergencies, further complicating the dynamics of US-Taiwan relations.
Trump’s Trade Policies and Their Impact on Taiwan
Much hinges on how Trump chooses to handle relations with China. His previous statements have sparked cautious optimism among political observers in Taiwan. Trump has proposed imposing a flat 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, with threats of escalating this to 150-200% in response to any aggression against Taiwan.
There are no indications that Trump plans to sever ties with regional allies like South Korea or Japan; however, he has urged these countries to contribute more to the presence of US troops in their regions. Trump’s foreign policy often reflects a cost-benefit analysis, suggesting that he may reconsider actions that would allow China to dominate the Indo-Pacific region.
Consequently, Taiwan’s future remains uncertain under a potential second Trump administration. The island’s residents do not anticipate another ‘golden age’ but rather a complex geopolitical landscape that requires vigilance and adaptability.