Donald Trump decisively won the US presidential election, outperforming Kamala Harris in key swing states and among Latino and female voters. His victories in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were significant, with narrow margins in some. Trump also led in the popular vote by about five million. Notably, he gained increased support from Latino voters and those without a college degree, while Harris struggled to maintain the female voter base that Biden had previously secured.
The US presidential election has concluded rapidly, with Donald Trump emerging as the clear victor in the crucial swing states, outperforming Kamala Harris among both Latino and female voters.
The election night in the United States began with expectations of a tightly contested race that could potentially stretch on for days. However, by early Wednesday morning in Germany, the Republican candidate Donald Trump confidently announced his victory to his supporters. Rather than experiencing prolonged uncertainty, voters were met with a decisive outcome—how did this happen?
One key factor: the election was not merely a single battle but effectively seven distinct contests. While many states voted predictably for either party, the spotlight was on the highly competitive swing states, which both Harris and Trump had targeted throughout their campaigns.
It was evident that if one candidate secured victories in certain swing states while the other won in different ones, the final outcome could hinge on a few remaining states, which often take longer to tally. Some states continue to accept mail-in ballots if they are postmarked by election day, as is the case in Nevada, where results are still pending.
Narrow Margins in Swing States
Four years ago, it took more than four days for Joe Biden to be declared the president. This time, however, the outcome was clear early on, as Donald Trump won all four of the critical close races: North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In several of these states, Trump’s margin was razor-thin, sometimes under one percentage point, while in others, he led by a more comfortable margin of three points. The latest polls indicated that these differences often fell within the typical margin of error. Nevertheless, these small fluctuations generally favored Trump, proving decisive in several key races.
Following Trump’s first presidential victory, Europe was left in shock. This time, the reaction appears to be different.
Trump’s Popular Vote Victory
It’s important to note that even this year, Trump’s support was underestimated in polls leading up to the election. American pollsters experienced déjà vu, recalling how in 2016 and 2020, Trump supporters were often reluctant to engage in surveys or disclose their opinions. This year, adjustments were made to address this issue, but the effectiveness of those changes seems limited.
While national polls often showed Kamala Harris and Trump neck and neck, it has now become clear that Trump will also secure the popular vote. With approximately 90% of votes counted, he is ahead of Harris by around five million votes.
Voter Demographics and Shifts
A significant trend emerged early in the night: Trump won Florida by an impressive 13 percentage points—double the polling average from FiveThirtyEight on election day. Once a battleground state, Florida has now solidified its status as a reliable Trump state.
This shift is closely tied to Trump’s increased support among various voter demographics. Specifically, he performed substantially better with Latino voters compared to four years ago. In the previous election, Joe Biden had a 30-point advantage in this demographic, but Harris’s lead has now diminished to under ten points.
Another important divide is emerging based on education. While Harris attracted more college-educated voters, Trump gained significant ground among those without a college degree. Four years ago, Biden and Trump were nearly even in this group, but now Trump has established a ten-point lead among these voters, who represent a crucial segment of the electorate.
As for Kamala Harris, she aimed to boost her support among women by prioritizing abortion rights during her campaign. However, post-election surveys indicate that her performance among female voters was slightly weaker than Biden’s four years earlier.
‘Not a President, but a Businessman’
This topic was reported on November 6, 2024, at 10:00 AM.