The Copernicus Observatory published its annual report on Tuesday taking stock of the past climate year, in which it confirms the conclusions of a previous assessment which, already on December 6, assured that 2023 was the hottest year on record .
In 2023, “climate records have fallen like dominoes”. In a report published Tuesday 9 January, the European Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that 2023 will be the hottest year on record,ith an average temperature established at 14.98°C on a global scale. The year that has just passed thus dethrones 2016 (14.81°C). “Temperatures recorded in 2023 exceed probably those from any period for at least 100,000 years,” according to the deputy director of the Copernicus service on climate change, Samantha Burgess, quoted in a press release.
In a previous report published on December 6, Copernicus already assured that 2023 would be the hottest year on record. December data only confirmed the trend : the last month of the year was December the hottest on record globally, with an average temperature of 13.51°C, 1.78°C above the 1850-1900 level for the month. Here are the main lessons from this report.
The world on the verge of the +1.5°C limit of the Paris agreement
Signed in 2015 at the end of COP21, the Paris Agreement threshold aims to maintain “the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to continue the efforts “to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. However, itCompared to the pre-industrial era, the global average temperature of 2023 represents an increase of 1.48°C.
From the beginning of June, the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C was exceeded for several days, underlines Copernicus which points out “one of the first signs testifying to the exceptional nature of this year 2023”. “Even if this was not the first time that this daily anomaly threshold was exceeded, this had never happened so early in the year”continues the institute, adding that“he is likely that a period of 12 months ending in January or February 2024 will exceed the pre-industrial level by 1.5°C. VShowever “this does not mean that the limit set by the Paris agreement has been exceeded”, continues Copernicus.
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During another extraordinary review of this year, during the COP28 organized in Dubai in December, Chris Hewitt, director of the climate branch of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) already insisted on this point : the threshold of 1.5°C established in the Paris agreement refers to “warming over decades, over a period of at least twenty years” and not, as during the last year, “isolated days or weeks.” “Even if we cross the threshold of +1.5°C, this would, for the moment, only concern a single year. This is not enough to say that the limit described in the Paris agreement has been crossed. concluded the scientist.
According to Copernicus, global daily temperature anomalies above 1.5°C “have become regular, to the point that almost 50% of the days in the year 2023 exceeded the level of 1850-1900 by 1.5°C.” Likewise, thehe year 2023 is also the first year in which every day exceeded the levels of 1850-1900 by one degree. Finally, two days in November were, for the first time, 2°C warmer.
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Record temperatures in the oceans
Ocean surface temperatures also showed levels “unprecedented”. They “were a driving factor in the unusual atmospheric temperatures observed throughout 2023”, continues Copernicus. For the period included between April and December, these temperatures were the highest for this time of year in the ERA5 data set, the tool used by the Observatory and which allows us to go back to 1940. While he cites the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in this warming of the oceans, “the transition to El Niño alone does not explain the entire increase in global ocean surface temperatures in 2023”insists Copernicus. “Because the [températures de surface] high outside the equatorial Pacific [où le courant El Niño se manifeste] contributed significantly to the establishment of records (…) on a global scale.”
At the North Pole as well as the South Pole, the melting of the ice has also reached worrying levels in 2023. But it is in the South that the effects of climate on sea ice have crossed an unprecedented threshold. In Antarctica, “it reached record minimums for the corresponding period of the year, for eight months”, explains Copernicus.
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“Daily and monthly ranges reached historic lows in February 2023,” according to Copernicus.
Record greenhouse gas emissions
Still according to Copernicus observations, greenhouse gas concentrations reached the highest levels recorded in the atmosphere in 2023. Greenhouse gases, mainly from human activities, are the main cause of global warming. However, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane have reached 419 respectively ppm, in other words parts per million (2.4 ppm more than in 2022) and 1902 ppb (11 ppb more than in 2022).
Poor results obtained despite commitments made around the world since the Paris agreement, in 2021, to drastically reduce the use of coal, oil and gas, including combustion for industrial, energy, agricultural purposes, etc. . In December 2023, fossil fuels as a whole were mentioned for the first time in the final text of COP28, which invited countries to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, by accelerating action in this crucial decade, in order to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 in accordance with scientific recommendations”. However, in this year 2023, “the rate of increase in carbon dioxide was similar to that observed in recent years,” according to Copernicus.
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The observatory adds that “global wildfire-related carbon emissions estimated for 2023 increased by 30% compared to 2022, mainly due to the persistence of wildfires in Canada.”
On a more positive note, “the rate of increase in methane remained high but was lower than in the past three years.” Known to the general public for being notably Emitted during the digestion of cattle, methane (CH4) is an important lever in the fight against global warming, at least in the short term. And for good reason, it has a warming power over twenty years 84 times higher to carbon dioxide (CO2).
Since the 19th century, the average temperature of the Earth warmed by 1.1°C . Scientists have established with certainty that this increase is due to human activities, which consume fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). This warming, unprecedented in its speed, threatens the future of our societies and biodiversity. But solutions – renewable energies, sobriety, reduced meat consumption – exist. Discover our answers to your questions on the climate crisis.