three questions on the plan for the post-war in Gaza presented by the Israeli Defense Minister

Yoav Gallant unveiled his plan Thursday evening according to which there will be “neither Hamas” nor “Israeli civil administration” in place in the Palestinian territory at the end of the fighting.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant presented for the first time, Thursday, January 4, a plan for the post-war in Gaza, where Israel continued its bombings and ground operations on Friday. Israel has sworn to “destroy” the Islamist movement after its attack on Israeli soil on October 7, which left nearly 1,200 dead and 250 hostages, around a hundred of whom were released during a truce at the end of November. Since then, this war has left 22,600 dead in the Gaza Strip, mostly women and minors, according to figures released Friday by the Hamas Ministry of Health but which cannot be independently verified.

Yoav Gallant’s plan, which has yet to receive government approval, provides for the continuation of Israeli military operations in Gaza until “return of the hostages”At “dismantling Hamas’ military and governance capabilities” and to “the elimination of military threats”.

Several projects concerning the future of the Palestinian enclave after the fall of Hamas are already on the table, most of them supported by the far right. These plans, which provide for the forced transfer of Palestinians from Gaza and the return of Israeli settlers to the enclave, were deemed “provocative” And “incendiaries” by Europeans. This new “day after” scenario is carried by a more moderate minister. Here’s what we know about it.

1 What does the Minister of Defense’s plan include?

“There will be no Israeli civilian presence in the Gaza Strip”assures Yoav Gallant. Once Israeli objectives have been achieved, “neither Hamas nor Israel will rule Gaza after the war”, promises the Minister of Defense. According to the Israeli daily The Times of Israelif his plan is implemented, a new Palestinian administration under Israeli control will have to limit itself to current affairs, such as the “wastewater management, electricity, water and humanitarian aid”. Palestinian civilians “will be held responsible, provided that there is no hostile action or threat against the State of Israel”specifies the minister’s plan.

Another pillar of this plan: the economic reconstruction of this territory which has more than 2 million inhabitants. This mission would be entrusted to an international force led by the United States, made up of Arab countries signatories to the Abraham Accords and several European countries, specifies The Times of Israel.

On the security aspect, Yoav Gallant affirms that the Israeli army would keep “his freedom of action” in the Gaza Strip to curb all “possible threat“. “Without limits”, underlines the Minister of Defense, quoted by the Israeli news channel i24NEWS. The minister did not specify whether the Jewish state would maintain an occupation force or military capabilities in Gaza after the end of the fighting.

Finally, Yoav Gallant calls for a strengthening of Israeli-Egyptian cooperation on the border between Gaza and the Egyptian territory of Sinai. This rapprochement between the two countries would aim to“ensure the effective sealing of the border between Gaza and Egypt, and the control of the entry of goods by physical and technological means”he explains to i24NEWS.

2 Is the Israeli government united around these proposals?

By excluding the return of settlers to the Palestinian enclave, the Minister of Defense is alienating the Israeli extreme right. “The plan (…) for the ‘day after’ is a repeat of the ‘day before’ on October 7. You have to be able to think outside the box”, tackles the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, cited by i24NEWS. The latter campaigns for a very contested “voluntary emigration Palestinians and ae “new colonization” Israeli. His far-right colleague, the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, also called on Sunday for a return of Israeli settlers to the Gaza Strip. “To have security, he explainswe must control the territory and for that, we need a civilian presence on site”.

According to Thomas Vescovi, an independent researcher specializing in the Palestinian territory and member of the Yaani.fr editorial board, this initiative by the Minister of Defense must also be analyzed in the light of internal dynamics within the government: “He refuses to position himself in line with the far-right ministers of the Netanyahu government.” “It is a safe bet that early elections will take place in 2024. Thanks to this plan, he can position himself as an alternative to Netanyahu who has not given in to the sirens of the far right”underlines the researcher.

3 Can this plan be supported by the international community?

“It’s not the worst plan”analyzed Hubert Védrine, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Friday on franceinfo. “The worst are the people who think like the Americans when faced with Indians during colonization”those who “want to remove the two million inhabitants of the West Bank, put their hands on Gaza, resettle settlers in Gaza”, continued the French diplomat.

For Laure Foucher, senior researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, “Yoav Gallant’s plan is extremely vague and avoids all the complex points and disagreements internally and with the United States on the post-war issue, such as security management and the return of the Palestinian Authority.” It is in fact an avenue defended by the United States, a strong ally of Israel. “Any future government plan in Gaza must include Palestinian governance and unification of Gaza with the West Bank, under the auspices of the Palestinian Authority” now in power in the West Bank, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted in November 2023 during a visit to Israel. The absence of this hypothesis in Yoav Gallant’s plan could cost him the precious support of the Americans.

The minister’s strategy also remains unclear on the economic side. “He mentions an international aid mechanism for Gaza, but who will finance the reconstruction and under what conditions?” asks Laure Foucher, who observes that “many unknowns” remain in the plan proposed by the minister.