Will the Westerners succeed in breaking the blockade of Ukraine’s main port? On Friday June 10, France announced that it was ready to participate in a “operation” which allows “to access the port of Odessa in complete safety, i.e. to be able to pass boats despite the fact that the sea is mined“said an adviser to President Emmanuel Macron.
The operation would make it possible in particular to export Ukrainian cereals, some of which are starting to rot. Just before the war, Ukraine was on its way to becoming the world’s third-largest wheat exporter and supplied half of the world’s trade in sunflower seeds and oil. But the Russian invasion launched on February 24 paralyzed Ukrainian ports and blocked some 20 to 25 million tons cereals for export, leading to the beginnings of a food crisis in many countries that were largely dependent on these foodstuffs.
Soaring grain prices due to blocked exports, posing a risk of food crises in the world, are caused by “Russian aggression” in Ukraine and not by sanctions against Moscow, assured the head of diplomacy Ukrainian #AFP pic.twitter.com/t0SF4QMvrR
– Agence France-Presse (@afpfr) June 8, 2022
1Why is the port of Odessa so strategic?
Since the first bombardments of the city on March 21, million tons of cereals intended for export are blocked in the port of Odessa, subject to a blockade by the Russian army. The large city in southern Ukraine represents a strategic interest for Russia which, since the beginning of the conflict, has been trying to paralyze the country by blocking its economic centers.
Nicknamed the “Pearl of the Black Sea”, Odessa (995,000 inhabitants before the war) has the largest seaport in the country, and one of the largest on the Black Sea. Its annual traffic capacity reaches 40 million tons.
Odessa sees transit 80% of Ukrainian grain exports. The port is connected to the railways, which allows rapid transfer of goods from sea routes to land transport. The city is also a strategic place on the Ukrainian coast, located not far from Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist territory coveted by Russian forces.
2What is the situation there?
Since the beginning of the conflict, Odessa has been hit by Russian strikes on multiple occasions. The last major one, which dates back to May 9, left one dead and five injured. The city’s economy (trade, tourism, etc.) was hit hard by the conflict.
The city was never conquered by Russian forces, but maritime access to the port of Odessa is far from secure. The Russian fleet controls the Black Sea. To avoid attacks from the sea, the Ukrainians mined the accesses to the port. On Wednesday, the spokesman for the administration of the Odessa region, Serguiï Bratchouk, said he was opposed to mine clearance.
“The Russian Black Sea Fleet will pretend to withdraw towards annexed Crimea. But as soon as we clear the access to the port of Odessa, the Russian fleet will be there.”
Sergei Brachuk, spokesman for the administration of the Odessa regionon Telegram
3 Is port unblocking really possible?
On the surface, Russia seems open to discussion. Vladimir Putin would have given his “consent” for such an operation during an interview with Emmanuel Macron on May 28, recalled the Elysée.
On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also met with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlüt Cavusoglu, to discuss the establishment of maritime corridors, and thus facilitate grain exports via the Black Sea. However, the negotiations were unsuccessful.
In fact, such an operation to unblock the port of Odessa cannot take place until Russia puts an end to its blockade of the city. “It is a difficult scenario to imagine given that this blockade, which completely deprives Odessa of its maritime access, is an integral part of their strategy”, valued Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute in geopolitics and defense of Europe.
“Russia seeks to use this operation as leverage for the lifting of Western sanctions“, adds the researcher, interviewed by franceinfo. According to him, Russia will only let go if the West agrees to reverse the sanctions imposed on Moscow. A highly improbable prospect to date.