Autumn is long overdue. Meteo France predicts a “late episode of sweetness” from this weekend on a large part of France. “We will remain under the influence of a hot air mass until Friday, October 21”, specifies Frédéric Nathan, forecaster at Météo France. Franceinfo takes stock of this week of autumn thaw which will begin on Saturday October 15.
What temperatures will be observed?
Temperatures, already above normal for the season on Friday October 14, will gradually rise this weekend. “Saturday, it will be around 27-28°C in Agen (Lot-et-Garonne) and Toulouse (Haute-Garonne). In the North, we will go above normal, with 19°C in Paris, 20 in Nantes (Loire-Atlantique) and 18°C in Lille, mild temperatures for the season”, explains Frédéric Nathan. The peak is expected from Sunday in the South-West, with up to 29°C in Tarbes (Hautes-Pyrénées).
From Saturday, a mass of warm air for the season will come up from Spain and cross our borders.
️ A late episode of sweetness is expected in the next few days. Bar of 25°C frequently exceeded in the south of the country and can be locally in the north.
https://t.co/et8qQJ1UYc pic.twitter.com/kxJ4QvUKJ7
— Meteo-France (@meteofrance) October 13, 2022
Sunday, 25°C are expected in Lyon and 23-24°C in Strasbourg, details the forecaster. “It will last a large part of next week”he specifies, before a cooling on the weekend of October 21-22. “There may be decade-long records [sur la période 10-20 octobre], but probably no monthly record, which rather occurs at the beginning of the month”continues Frédéric Nathan.
What is the link with global warming?
It is not the first time that it has been so hot in October. “Mild episodes at this time, we have known in previous decades”notes Frédéric Nathan, recalling that an attribution study must be carried out to link a one-time event to global warming caused by human activities. “On the other hand, it is in line with the high temperatures we have had this year, with an insane summer in terms of heat”he adds.
On Twitter, Serge Zaka, agroclimatologist at ITK, notes that this will be the 9th episode of heat anomaly of the year.
France is still heading towards an episode of off-season temperature with a possible return of 30°C next week.
▶️ This is (at least) the 9th positive anomaly episode of 2022 (>4°C).
▶️ October will continue a series of 9 consecutive months above standards. pic.twitter.com/a70cY3x4Q0— Dr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge) (@SergeZaka) October 13, 2022
What consequences for agriculture?
This new episode of mildness comes after a very severe drought, largely absorbed for agricultural soils, but always strong in depth. But according to Serge Zaka, this episode of sweetness, if it does not last beyond the week, will have “a very limited impact” on agriculture. “It will even have a positive effect for livestock farmers, by extending the period of fodder production [herbe] and by allowing the animals to be left in the meadows”he analyzes, even seeing in it a means of “limit the damage” of the scorching summer. To refill the water tables, the agroclimatologist reminds us that it will take “too much rain” this winter to avoid “to start again on very bad bases” next summer.