Three out of five Canadian workers are highly exposed to the effects of artificial intelligence, and half of them are at risk of simply being replaced by machines. And unlike automation, these effects are being felt most among the most educated who perform non-routine cognitive tasks.
Workers in the health, education, management, professional and scientific services, finance and public administration sectors are expected to be most directly affected by the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution in the coming years, according to a study on the subject released Tuesday. For some of them, such as teachers, healthcare workers and managers, this new technology could develop alongside them in a complementary manner, while for others, such as IT professionals, sales representatives and administrative staff in finance and business, it could one day do their work for them.
As for workers in construction, transportation, and the accommodation and catering sectors, they can sleep soundly. They should be less affected than others by this technological revolution.
From the industrial revolution to the invention of the computer, this would not be the first time that technology has disrupted the economy and the job market, recalled the authors of the Statistics Canada study of just over thirty pages, Tahsin Mehdi and René Morissette. A few years ago, research established that one in ten employees in Canada faced a high risk (70% probability or more) of seeing their job transformed by robots, computers and all other forms of automation. Workers at risk were generally less educated and performed routine tasks.
More recently, the authors of the Statistics Canada study explain, foreign studies have estimated that rapid advances in AI and tools like ChatGPT could profoundly transform the daily lives of a much broader set of sectors, representing up to 60% of workers, by allowing employers to “automate routine tasks, improve human decision-making processes and create new opportunities for innovation and efficiency.”
Millions of workers
However, the exercise had not yet been done for the Canadian economy. By applying the methodology of the other studies to the latter, Statistics Canada researchers arrived at roughly the same results. That is to say, approximately 4.2 million employees in Canada in 2021, or 31%, had high exposure (above the median) to AI and low complementarity (below the median) with it, while 3.9 million, or 29%, had high exposure but also high complementarity, and 5.4 million, or 40%, had low exposure.
Unlike automation, AI most threatens to disrupt the habits of workers who are the most educated, the most highly paid, and the most engaged in non-routine cognitive tasks. For example, nearly two-thirds (62%) of workers with a high school diploma or less have low exposure, compared to just one in six (17%) of those with a bachelor’s degree.
More present in sectors such as health and education, women are proportionally more numerous (68%) among the most exposed workers than men (46%), more present in less affected sectors, such as construction and transport.
For once, the highest paid employees are also the most exposed: three-quarters of the richest 10% have a high rate of exposure to AI, while this is the case for less than half (45%) of the poorest 10%.
Time will tell
All these figures come with several layers of caveats, the two authors of the study explain well. All sorts of constraints, including financial, legal and institutional, are likely to delay and slow the deployment of AI in workplaces. Then, “exposure to AI does not necessarily constitute a risk of job loss,” they emphasize. In some cases, it could involve the transformation of the position; in other cases, it could lead to the creation of new tasks or new jobs.
And it wouldn’t be the first time that experts have exaggerated the risks and benefits of technological advances, they add. Therefore, the estimates they arrive at “should be interpreted with caution. Only time will tell whether the changes predicted by new technologies will come to fruition.”