There is a form of disappointment among supporters of Emmanuel Macron. “The campaign is frustrating for us, said one of his defenders, in particular because the president does not really want to be a candidate, and that the time he devotes to the program is not what should be.” It is a relative who delivers this confidence.
He and others observe that the surge in the polls is stalling. “We had artificially risen above 30 with the war in Ukraine“ said an elected official. Since then, these same polls have been slowly receding. The presentation of the project did not have the expected blast effect.
>> Presidential 2022: discover the evolution of voting intentions in the first round, in our daily barometer
A shared observation on the Marine Le Pen side. “The president loses 0.5 to 1 point per day”, notes a National Rally deputy. The risk identified at En Marche is an end to the campaign without momentum for Macron. And a difference ultimately much smaller than expected Le Pen. This scenario will inevitably have consequences on the second round, due to the vote transfers deemed favorable for Marine Le Pen, who believes she has already won new voters. “She can make the same score as in 2017, with more Zemmour in the legs”, deciphers a relative for whom this is proof that there is a new marinist electorate.
In the second round, the RN candidate hopes to win the pro-Zemmour votes, some of those of Valérie Pécresse. Why not a minority of Mélenchonistes? She is also counting on the abstention of the left, which, she hopes, will not return to vote Macron.
On the other side, bitter observation of support from the president: “Our only possible base in the second round is a weak left – Hidalgo, Jadot – and a small part of the small electorate of Pécresse.” This is what makes people say that “this second round is likely to be much more open than we think”.
There is certainly the debate between the two rounds, which is often decisive. But there again, we don’t put too much emphasis on it at Emmanuel Macron, because “Marine Le Pen has gained incredible credibility” justifies a minister. Some go further in government. “She’s excellent, she doesn’t talk bullshit, she’s super calm” can we hear. “In fact, he only has to be average at the debate to win it”, slice a close to the president.
This is why around Emmanuel Macron, we will work in the coming days to debunk the idea that he is a right-wing candidate. To avoid this catastrophic scenario, the Macronists must reactivate the republican barrage reflex of a large part of the left.
The Marchers thus want at all costs to demine, for example, the measure on the RSA, the payment of which will be conditioned if the president is re-elected at “15 to 20 hours of insertion activity”.