“This calls into question Israeli military strategy in the Gaza Strip,” analyzes Middle East specialist

An agreement was reached overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday for “a humanitarian pause” in Gaza in exchange for the exchange of 50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas. “A considerable advance, but that does not mean that it is the end of this war,” said researcher Younes Belfellah on franceinfo.

The agreement reached on Wednesday November 22 between Israel and Hamas “questions Israeli military strategy in the Gaza Strip”, analysis on franceinfo Younes Belfellah, teacher-researcher at Paris 8 University, director of the MedFocus think tank and specialist in the Middle East. During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, Israel announced that it had reached an agreement with Hamas to recover 50 hostages, including women and children, against Palestinian prisoners, and a four-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. . This truce is “a very considerable advance, but that does not mean, in any case, that this is the end of this war”according to Younes Belfellah.

franceinfo: Was this agreement the right decision to make?

Younes Belfellah: The question of negotiation was already the only possible option for the Israelis, but obviously, this calls into question Israeli military strategy in the Gaza Strip. Because we remember that among the objectives declared by Israel is to bring the hostages home. We saw that even with this offensive in the Gaza Strip, Israel did not manage to find a single hostage with its military operation. Now it is the role of politics. This is thanks to political negotiations, but also thanks to the mobilization of the international community, and mainly Western countries like the United States or France, which have dual nationals among the hostages.

There is pressure from the United States but also pressure from Western countries which pushed Israel to sign this agreement?

Yes, clearly and it is this pressure which pushed towards political negotiations. Now, it’s very interesting when we see that there is a priority given to women and children. We have around fifty hostages, in return for 150 Palestinian people, and also children and women. On this, I remind you that there are 200 Palestinian children and 78 women in Israeli prisons among 7,000 Palestinian prisoners. So this will be a first step in releasing the hostages, with obviously four days of humanitarian truce. This is a very considerable step forward, but it does not mean in any way that this is the end of this war.

Moreover, in the press release announcing this agreement, the words are different. “Calm in the fighting” says Israel, “humanitarian truce”, says Hamas, “humanitarian pause”, says Qatar. Does that mean that in reality it doesn’t solve anything at all in the long term?

Yes, because the objective declared by the Israeli army, which is the destruction of Hamas, is becoming more and more distant because we know perfectly well that the political clergy of Hamas are in Qatar now. The destruction of Hamas’s military apparatus will take much longer and it also risks turning international public opinion against Israel, given the bombings and the number of civilian victims of this war. Politically, I can say it clearly, Hamas gained a lot of points during this war. It establishes itself as a major player who manages to negotiate with international forces and powers, notably the United States. Hamas currently has leadership of the Palestinian cause. And on the military level, I can say that it is a zero-sum game because there will be no winner in this war. On the contrary, the question of time is a considerable and significant element because entering into a war of attrition, which will take many months, with civilian victims, will not achieve the security and military objectives declared by Israel. Now, that doesn’t mean this will be the last chapter of war in this region. We know perfectly well that there is a risk of conflagration with Hezbollah or other organizations.