The attack on the Gao military camp in Mali, in which a French soldier died on Saturday January 22, is “an act of war” but also “a provocation”, estimates Antoine Glaser, specialist in Africa, Sunday on franceinfo. “It comes at the worst time for the French power, according to the journalist. A few months before the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron does not want to move on Barkhane at all. It is Africa that gives France its influential diplomacy vis-à-vis its partners.” But according to Antoine Glaser, “the jihadists have already won since there are no more Westerners from Mauritania to Sudan”.
franceinfo: Is this attack an act of war?
Anthony Glaser: Absoutely ! Not only is this an act of war, but it can also be considered a provocation. Gao is the last big French base in Mali, but it was also there that the jihadists settled in 2013.
And then, it comes at the worst time for France. Its European partners are increasingly refusing to maintain their presence in the Takuba force and relations with the Malian junta are very complicated because it is asking for the revision of defense agreements, in particular air agreements which precisely make it possible to supply the base in Gao from a base in Côte d’Ivoire.
In addition, this comes at a really complicated time for the French power because we feel that a few months before the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron does not want to move at all on Barkhane, even if he announced that the number soldiers would be reduced from 5,000 to 2,500.
What is the fallback solution?
I don’t know, but we can clearly see that the situation is not in the fight against terrorism. I think we are in a new historical phase, a period of decolonization. Africa is globalizing extremely rapidly. France is therefore more and more above ground in relation to a social, economic and political situation which no longer corresponds at all to the period of the Cold War, when there were tens of thousands of people around the army. French, aid workers, and an extremely large French civilian presence.
In a way, the jihadists have already won since there are no more Westerners from Mauritania to Sudan. Just look at a travel advice card from the Quai d’Orsay: everything is in red! Even the north of Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, or even Benin.
Why not leave?
It is a political decision. It is Africa that gives France and Emmanuel Macron its influential diplomacy vis-à-vis its partners. It is the French military presence in Africa. It is no coincidence that the only really important post that France still controls in the United Nations is that of the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations. This is why she is between a rock and a hard place and this is why Emmanuel Macron is trapped. In February, he will organize a major meeting on Africa in Brussels, on the occasion of the French presidency of the European Union. At the same time, he sees clearly that he is alone at the front in the Sahel.