Skid. Loss of control. See it as you like, but the parliamentary session got off to a bad start in Ottawa for the Liberals, who are having as much trouble delivering services to the public as appointing the right people to symbolic positions.
The unfortunate appointment of Amira Elghawaby as special representative for the fight against Islamophobia leads us to two observations.
First, Justin Trudeau has a great talent for getting his feet wet by making appointments in a hurry, without consultation. A simple analysis of the writings of M.me Elghawaby would have revealed her contempt for Quebec, in the same way that usual checks with former governor general Julie Payette’s previous employers would have revealed that she treated her employees harshly.
Second, the Prime Minister lacks sensitivity towards Quebec and French more broadly, as we saw recently with the highly questionable appointment of a unilingual English lieutenant-governor in New Brunswick, an officially bilingual province. .
With the appointment of Mr.me Elghawaby, Justin Trudeau seems disconnected not only from Quebec, but also from his own caucus, since the Minister of Canadian Heritage, Pablo Rodriguez, and that of Justice, David Lametti, did not hesitate to express their discomfort, in a rare a movement of dissension which does not bode well after eight years in power.
However, Justin Trudeau does not have the luxury of alienating the east of the country, because Quebec and the Atlantic are the only areas where the Liberals retain the advantage, while the Conservatives show the largest lead. important (8 points) in the voting intentions of Canadians since the Liberals came to power in 2015, according to a recent Abacus poll.
What this poll also indicates is that the majority of Canadians believe that the Trudeau government does not pay enough attention to key issues, such as the rising cost of living, the price of real estate, economic growth , deficit reduction and the delivery of public services.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has the fine game of whipping up this dissatisfaction, with repetitive slogans that only scratch the bobo, without providing a remedy. But let’s face it, inflation is a global problem that Justin Trudeau is not responsible for. And anyway, it’s up to the Bank of Canada, not the government, to bring prices down to earth.
On the other hand, we must admit that things are slipping on the public service delivery side, despite an increase in the number of civil servants (+ 24%) and also external consulting contracts (+ 42%), since 2015, according to an analysis of Globe and Mail.
After the nightmare of passports and airports, it is now employment insurance claimants who are tearing their hair out. Almost a quarter of requests are not processed within the normal 28-day period, Radio-Canada reported this week.
And Service Canada sometimes has the nerve to tell unemployed workers who can no longer pay their bills to turn to food banks or to be supported by their husbands. A shame.
However, the pressure on public services could increase a notch this spring, when 165,000 federal civil servants who want higher salary increases than those offered by Ottawa threaten to call a strike which could occur in the middle of tax season.
Despite the very unfortunate political consequences of such a labor dispute, the Trudeau government must remain cautious, because its checkbook is beginning to be less well stocked and several risks await our public finances, as highlighted in a recent publication by the firm Bennett Jones, contributed by former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge.
First, there is a strong probability that the recession will be stronger than expected in 2023. Then, it is quite possible that inflation will remain high longer than we think, and therefore interest rates too. Finally, the government will have to face a series of additional expenses to achieve its objectives.
To govern is to choose, they say. In the current context, the Liberals must therefore focus on the essentials, that is to say:
- Agree on health funding with the premiers of the provinces that Justin Trudeau called together on Tuesday.
- Make sure that Canadian companies do well in the green transition, while the Americans deploy colossal sums with the Inflation Reduction Act.
- Improve the quality of public services.
- Work with provinces and municipalities to address the housing crisis.
- Without forgetting the war in Ukraine which puts in our face the need to reinvest in military spending.
In short, as the next budget approaches, Ottawa must remain very focused if it wants to prevent our public finances from slipping… like this difficult return to Parliament.