They could replace Biden or become Harris’ running mate

With three weeks to go until the Democratic convention, time is running out. Who could replace Joe Biden? Kamala Harris is at the top of the list. Many are supporting her. “But we’re not far from a surprise,” says Julien Toureille, researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at the Université du Québec à Montréal. Here are six candidates expected to replace Joe Biden or become a running mate.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the clear favorite

Vice President Kamala Harris is the big favorite. Joe Biden supports her. She will be able to recover the funds raised by the Biden-Harris team and take up the torch of the campaign that has begun. In the hours following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, $46.7 million was raised via ActBlue. “That shows the expectations on the donor side,” believes Julien Tourreille. Her Achilles heel? She is not good at campaigning, believes Mr. Tourreille. She left the last primaries early, even before the first vote. In Joe Biden’s shadow, she was confined to difficult issues like immigration. However, she shone in her defense of abortion rights, a subject that Mr. Biden had difficulty defending during his debate against Donald Trump. Democrats hope to use this issue to galvanize voters.

Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania

The former Pennsylvania attorney general was elected governor by a landslide in 2022. He is very popular in this crucial state for Democrats. In a recent poll, his approval rating was 64% in his state. He has already endorsed Kamala Harris, so he will not run against her. He could be considered as a running mate: “He understands and reassures the middle-class electorate,” says Mr. Toureille.

Gavin Newsom, Governor of California

The man running for his second term as governor of California will not be a presidential candidate. He supported Kamala Harris on social media Sunday night. But will he be a running mate? That would be surprising, says Toureille, since he comes from the same state as Harris. However, Newsom gained notoriety by attacking Donald Trump in a debate against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in December 2023. However, “being a white man from California doesn’t really mobilize Democrats,” Toureille explains. Unlike Joe Biden, he sends an image of “a privileged, overly progressive.” In addition, his political past casts a shadow over him. This former mayor of San Francisco will certainly have to explain the problems afflicting the city.

Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan

That woman from Michigan (this woman from Michigan). This is the description given by Donald Trump, who has not stopped attacking her during M’s first term^me Whitmer: She’s an ideal candidate on paper. She runs a swing state in the Midwest. She won her two elections by margins of about 10 points. She was ready to run for president in 2028. She could be now, but she has a huge name recognition deficit to overcome. “She’s not well-known enough to be able to run a national campaign in such a short period of time,” Toureille said. She’s unlikely to be chosen as a running mate. “I’m not sure the American people are ready for two women to lead them,” Toureille said.

Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transportation

“Kamala Harris is now the right person to take up the torch,” he wrote on X on Sunday evening, thus silencing rumors that he would run for president. According to Mr. Toureille, he would be the most attractive candidate as a running mate to Kamala Harris. The exchanges of Mr. Buttigieg, who is gay, with Republicans are a hit on social networks. “He can attack and surprise,” explains the expert. Unlike Kamala Harris, he is very good at campaigning. “Efficient and formidable,” he would fill her gaps, judges Mr. Toureille. “He is a Barack Obama who speaks well and is friendly and accessible, hence his nickname Mayor Pete [il a été maire de South Bend, en Indiana]. » But he got very little support among minority voters in 2020. And he’s still very little known.

JB Pritzker, Governor of Illinois

He is the heir to the Hyatt Hotels fortune. His wealth is estimated at $3.5 billion. He spent a total of $350 million on his two campaigns for governor of Michigan. Although his name is circulating, Mr. Toureille believes there is little chance that he will run against Kamala Harris. Like Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), he has a big name recognition deficit to make up. “He could be an interesting choice as a running mate because he is popular in Illinois. At the same time, it is not a state that has a huge weight,” says Mr. Toureille. According to him, strategically, the running mate should come from a crucial state, such as Pennsylvania or Michigan.