“They come from Africa, they don’t want to go back there”

(Calais, France) In Europe, the issue of “irregular” immigration is far from being resolved. As migrant crossings continue in Calais, despite threats of expulsion to Rwanda by the United Kingdom, the subject will be at the center of the European elections, which take place from June 6 to 9, and could see a new surge of the radical and populist right.

“On Saturday, there were more than 100, including around fifteen children. But there is no one there anymore…”

Yolaine Bernard contemplates the parking lot where she is used to supplying dozens of migrants, in the industrial zone of Calais. There is no cat. In the background, mountains of waste bear witness to recent human activity. But the groves all around, usually filled with tents, are almost empty.

Where have they all gone? Mystery. Some may have managed to cross the Channel to reach England, the final objective of their long and dangerous journey. But the humanitarian worker, who manages the Salam association, has another hypothesis. According to her, these exiles have possibly gone to Germany or Belgium, where there is no risk of expulsion.

Recall that at the end of April, the British government finally adopted its controversial bill, which provides for the expulsion of certain “irregular” migrants to Rwanda, from where their asylum requests for the Kingdom will be processed. -United. If all goes as planned, the first guinea pigs in this radical outsourcing program will leave Britain by force in mid-July, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.

In Calais, this political decision from London arouses perplexity. For Pierre Roques, coordinator of the Auberge des Migrants, an association helping exiles, it is above all a “communications operation”, a few months before the British elections which promise to be disastrous for the Tories of Sunak. Mr Roques believes the expulsion program to Rwanda will be difficult to implement given its costs and legal issues, not to mention a possible victory for Labor in the July 4 elections. But he recognizes that this program risks “ruining the lives of a few people” and that all of this is “worrying”.

Concern could also be seen on the faces of the young men encountered in another camp a few minutes later. Some had taken up residence in an abandoned shed, others had pitched their tent on wooden pallets, so as not to be directly on the cold and damp ground of this rainy spring. When we talk to them about Rwanda, many shake their heads repeatedly. Mohammed, a 24-year-old Sudanese, directly imitates with his thumb the gesture of a throat being slit.

“They come from Africa, they don’t want to go back,” confirms Yolaine Bernard, empathetic.

The English dream

In Calais, the migrant file is far from closed. The “jungle” of 2016 may have disappeared, but there are still many exiles attempting the crossing to the United Kingdom, which is only around thirty kilometers away. The most penniless jump on trucks, the others take to the sea on precarious rubber boats or makeshift boats, stolen from the canals inland. Many come from Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, but also from Turkey, Eritrea or Sudan. They fled because of war, repression or their miserable living conditions. And despite the threat of the “Rwandan plan”, the United Kingdom remains their ultimate dream.

According to the official website of the British government, more than 10,000 of them successfully crossed by sea between 1^er January and May 20, an increase of 36% compared to the same date last year and 13% compared to 2022.

According to Pierre Roques, the departures would however be increasingly dangerous, due to increased police pressure on the French coast, with the police going so far as to use tear gas grenades.

Mr. Roques mentions recent deaths, including those of two little girls aged 4 and 7.

A pact called into question

While the European elections are in full swing (ongoing from June 6 to 9), there is no doubt that the question of immigration will once again be at the center of the game, not only in France, but in all the countries of the European Union (EU). The parties of the radical right, populist and predominantly anti-immigration should double their number of seats in Parliament (see other text) with probable impacts on migration issues.

After eight years of tough negotiations, the European Union finally adopted its famous “Pact on Asylum and Immigration” in December 2023, intended to more effectively manage the influx of irregular migrants on the continent. This agreement essentially provides for “mandatory solidarity” between the 27 member countries regarding the distribution of migrants, as well as an accentuated externalization mechanism, where asylum applications will be sorted in greater numbers outside the EU borders. , in countries like Tunisia, Egypt or Mauritania, even Albania.

However, according to François Gemenne, professor at HEC Paris and specialist in the migration issue, it cannot be ruled out that this agreement will be “called into question” by pressure from far-right parties. Some countries will want to review the solidarity mechanism (Hungary, for example, which is not keen to welcome migrants who have landed in Greece, Italy or Spain), while others will want to “push the logic even further” of the outsourcing.

According to the European Commission website, more than 385,000 “irregular crossings” were recorded in 2023, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year. Enough to feed the alarmist discourse of the far right, which continues to make it its business. Some “identity” parties, such as the German AfD, even go so far as to advocate “remigration”, that is to say the forced return of immigrants to their country of origin.

Professor at Sciences Po Paris and at the European University Institute, Ettore Recchi, however, recalls that immigration “is not the obsession of voters at the moment”, they being more concerned about purchasing power , health, employment, defense, security and climate change, other issues debated in these European elections.

Of the 448 million people living in the European Union, 42 million were born outside it, or 9% of the population, and 27 million are not officially EU citizens, or 6% of the population.