We’ve had the second hottest summer since 1900. And that’s just the beginning. A study conducted by theThe national institute of statistics and economic studies (Insee) and Météo-France shows that two-thirds of French people will be exposed to at least fifteen days of abnormal heat in summer, over the next thirty years.
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And when we talk about days”abnormally hot”, we are talking about temperatures at least 5°C above the summer reference temperature in the region. We refer to averages calculated between 1976 and 2005.
Thirty days of overheating per year
Until now, only 14% of French people lived in areas exposed to more than twenty abnormally hot days in summer. But over the next thirty years, INSEE estimates that 80% of the French population will experience between fifteen and thirty days of overheating in June, July and August. The INSEE demographers based themselves on the current distribution of the population in the territory and on climate simulations with a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.
But the authors make it clear: whatever the scenario considered, the trends for the next 30 years are almost equivalent. Our efforts on carbon emissions will pay off later. In the meantime, heat peaks will multiply everywhere, and it is in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes that the population will be most exposed to this overheating, ahead of that of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Occitanie.
The urgency of helping the most vulnerable people
There will be very few regions spared. The seasonal averages are often exceeded everywhere. To limit the exceptionally hot days in summer, you will have to go to Brittany, Corsica, Normandy or have the chance to spend the summer above 1,000 meters above sea level, or on the coast. But not in regions without coastlines.
Hence the urgent need to act on the insulation of housing, the greening of cities, and help for the most vulnerable, especially the elderly. 16% of French people will be over 75 in 2050, i.e. one in six French people.