“To achieve zero CO2 emissions by 2050, we would have to live constantly as in 2020, at the time of confinements linked to Covid, estimates the latest report from the international consortium of researchers, Global Carbon Project.
If current levels of greenhouse gas emissions persist, there is now a 50% risk that global warming of 1.5 degrees will be exceeded in nine years, warns the Global Carbon Project in its annual report published on Friday 11 November, while COP 27 is held until November 18 in Sharm-el-Sheikh (Egypt).
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Each year, this international consortium of researchers takes stock of global CO2 emissions2. It turns out to be quite pessimistic this year. The researchers assure that “to achieve zero CO emissions2 by 2050, emissions should now be reduced by approximately 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 every year” . However, according to the study, this level “is comparable to the observed decline in emissions in 2020 due to lockdowns” linked to the coronavirus epidemic, “which underlines the scale of the action required”.
Efforts in China and the EU, India and the United States fall short
In detail, the Global Carbon Project predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will reach this year “40.6 billion tons of CO2” . A balance sheet pushed up by emissions of fossil origin “which are expected to increase by 1% compared to 2021 to reach 36.6 billion tonnes of CO2” , a little more than before the health crisis. Greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change, such as deforestation, are expected to amount to 3.9 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the researchers’ predictions. Coal and oil emissions will also increase (+1 and +2.2% respectively), largely due to the rebound in international aviation, after the lifting of health restrictions.
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The study also assesses “mixed” of the main countries emitting greenhouse gases: the researchers of the Global Carbon Project thus predict a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in China (−0.9%) and in the European Union (−0.8% ), but an increase in India (+6%) and the United States (+1.5%).
“Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo contribute 58% of global emissions from land use change.”
Global Carbon Project, 2022 reviewat franceinfo
Faced with this observation, the researchers of the Global Carbon Project are calling on leaders to “take meaningful action”. “If governments respond by boosting clean energy investment and planting, not cutting trees, global emissions could quickly begin to decline”assures Philippe Ciais, climatologist at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences at the University of Paris-Saclay.
24 hours until the Global Carbon Budget 2022 is published @COP27P It’s the work of over 100 scientists around the world tracking global carbon emissions & sinks. It’s a Global Research Project of @FutureEarth and a key measure of progress towards the Paris Agreement goals #COP27 pic.twitter.com/OOSkOL0UnZ
—GlobalCarbonProject (@gcarbonproject) November 10, 2022