What is the difference between the Olympic Games and general elections in Quebec? There is no silver medal in elections. When you finish second, you have nothing at all!
Posted yesterday at 6:00 a.m.
This is the kind of disappointment that all political parties, except the party in power, of course, can expect the day after the elections on October 3rd.
We are in a totally unprecedented situation. There will be five main parties that are expected to get more than 10% of the vote according to the polls. Except that this guarantees them absolutely nothing as to the number of seats in the National Assembly.
In fact, with the results of the latest polls, we can think that there will be a super-majority for the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ). So an absolutely unprecedented imbalance between the number of votes and the number of seats.
With just over 40% of the votes, the CAQ could easily obtain 80% of the seats. The democratic rubber band would thus be stretched to the maximum.
There have already been such super-majorities. Among others in 1973, when Robert Bourassa’s Liberals found themselves with 102 seats out of 110 (at the time). But the Liberals had, at the time, obtained 55% of the vote. Still, the opposition – six seats in the Parti Québécois (with 30% of the vote) and two in the Créditistes (with 10% of the vote) – was largely under-represented.
The imbalance may not be as great in the aftermath of October 3, but the democratic deficit would be just as significant.
In fact, it’s a kind of perfect storm that is brewing. The CAQ has a considerable lead over the second party in the polls, the Liberal Party of Quebec, which has not managed for months to exceed the 20% mark. The only thing that should guarantee him the official opposition will be his strength in the predominantly Anglophone ridings of western Montreal – although traditionally Liberal seats there are under threat.
The other parties are not much better placed. The Parti Québécois (PQ) has been in decline since the 1995 referendum and nothing indicates that this situation would allow it to turn the tide. Except for Pascal Bérubé’s fortress in Matane-Matapédia, of course.
The gains of Québec solidaire are still fragile and several offices are in danger, particularly outside Montreal. We could therefore end up with several honorable second places.
The new Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) is in a slightly different situation. He is in fourth place in the polls with 13%, but his votes are sufficiently concentrated in the Quebec region to be able to think of electing deputies.
But if the supporters of the new PCQ are very mobilized, its opponents are just as much. It is therefore quite possible that on election night, Éric Duhaime’s party will have to settle for a series of virtual silver medals.
A National Assembly so unbalanced in favor of the party in power should give rise to a resumption of the debate on the proportional system.
But all the parties that have been in power at one time (the Liberals, the PQ and the CAQ) promised this reform when they were in opposition and chose to back down once elected.
Always for the same reason: once elected and well established, backbench MPs do not want to hear about a reform that would change the boundaries of their constituencies and make them cohabit with “list MPs”, who would not have had to be elected in the same circumstances as them. Especially since there would be some among those who could “steal” a ministerial post from them…
Obviously, nothing is predictable in an election campaign and anything can happen, even when the polls predict an easy victory. Nobody had seen the orange wave coming in 2011. Few people believed in a victory for the PQ in 1976. Election campaigns matter and surprises are frequent, even in the best prepared.
That said, the CAQ is in a particularly favorable situation. One factor in particular emerges from the polls: its popularity among the age group most likely to vote, ie voters aged 55 and over. Support for the CAQ reaches 52% and 70% of them say that their choice is final. A support that therefore does not risk evaporating or withering away in indifference.
The day after the elections may seem far away and we can’t swear to anything. But for the CAQ, it would still be prudent to plan now how it intends to manage this probable situation of democratic deficit in the National Assembly.
This will necessarily result in an opposition – much more uncontrollable for a government – which will express itself outside parliament and the institutions.