While the soldiers who took power in Burkina Faso accuse France of helping Lieutenant-Colonel Damiba overthrown on Friday September 30, which Paris denies, geopolitics professor Michel Galy estimates, this Saturday October 1, on franceinfo that France “has no interest” to defend in the country. “The problem is that there are precedentsregrets this specialist in Africa. There is a loss of influence, even hostility, which is aggravated by social networks and by a number of blunders by French leaders.
franceinfo: Does this coup only have an internal or international dimension?
Michel Galy, professor of geopolitics, specialist in Africa: The international dimension is in fact added to an internal crisis between two factions of the Burkinabe army. One is organized around the former president, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba. The other supports the new strongman, captain Ibrahim Traoré. The two factions are clashing at the moment and there are indeed accusations, a bit like in Mali, of interference by the French army since there is a French military base – a reduced contingent – for this called Operation Saber for the anti-jihadist struggle.
This French interference, denied by Paris, is it credible or absolutely incredible?
The problem is that there are precedents. For example, at the time of the fall of Blaise Compaoré, who was supported for a long time by France, it is true that the French and Ivorian armies exfiltrated him so that he escaped popular condemnation and a trial. We also remember Chad, where on the death of Marshal Idriss Déby, Emmanuel Macron rushed with his Minister of Foreign Affairs to organize the succession. But in this case, in the case of Burkina, I would be very surprised because it would be extremely awkward given that there are these tensions around the presence of the French army.
Does France have interests to defend in Burkina Faso?
Absolutely not. These are social media rumours. France has no interest in minerals or oil resources. It simply has a geopolitical interest in containing, or even reversing, jihadist attacks which still control at least a third of Burkinabe territory.
Is France’s influence in West Africa cracking everywhere?
Absolutely. In addition to those who attack the French Embassy in Ouagadougou and the French cultural center in Burkina’s second city Bobo-Dioulasso, there is a loss of influence, even hostility, which is aggravated by the social networks and by a number of blunders by French leaders. For example, in the case of Mali, at the time of President Hollande, it was France that set the date for the elections. There is a kind of remote governance. Above all, throughout the Sahel region, the French Serval force and then the Barkhane force were in a way in a situation of extraterritoriality above the States and the national armies. It is a situation which is very difficult for the populations and the political classes to live with and which could not last very long.