the world is on a warming trajectory of 2.5°C to 2.9°C, warns the UN

The limits set by the international community will be exceeded. The climate commitments made by countries around the world place the planet on a trajectory of catastrophic warming of up to 2.9°C during this century, the UN warned on Monday, November 20.

The continuation of current policies suggests a rise in temperatures of 3°C, compared to the pre-industrial area, during this century, according to the latest version of the report from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) on the gap between needs and prospects for reducing emissions, published each year before the COP.

Uncontrollable fires, devastating floods

Implementation of current climate commitments made by countries around the world will only limit the rise to 2.9°C taking into account their unconditional promises for the future, which are not subject to any conditions of external support , according to this document published just before the start of the major climate negotiations in Dubai as part of COP28.

This figure would be reduced to 2.5°C by integrating their conditional commitments (for example conditional on obtaining financing or the efforts of other countries). This publication follows another UN report, published in mid-November, which concluded that countries’ current commitments lead to a 2% reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2030, instead of the 43% recommended to limit warming to 1.5°C.

These levels of warming are far too high to hope to limit the cruelest effects of climate change, which is already resulting in uncontrollable fires, devastating floods or droughts depriving populations of income and food, with current average warming of 1.2°C. The report published Monday is concerned about “acceleration” of the number of records broken on the climate front.