Labor shortage and climate crisis, same fight? Both were predictable. Both have long been ignored. And since their consequences have struck, both require significant changes in our societies. The demographic stagnation of Quebec, although less catastrophic than global warming, requires a major revision of the sources of collective prosperity. To help us see things more clearly, Éric Desrosiers, journalist at Duty, publishes a work on this change of era on Wednesday.
Nothing new under the sun, the journalist saw the problem coming. He has been writing on the subject for at least 25 years. Except that the sun has been heating up a lot lately.
As with climate change, it is impossible today to look away from the labor shortage which is paralyzing growth. “When we think that water is ours, we waste it. When we think that it is not important to release GHGs into the atmosphere, we emit good ones,” explains Éric Desrosiers. “Similarly, from the moment we have the impression that we have as much labor as we want, our entire business model is based on the presumption that we will always have available labor. »
This is now a thing of the past. Employees and employers have entered a “new paradigm”, he writes in the work published by Somme tout/Le Devoir and titled The labor crisis. A Quebec lacking workers.
The worst of this labor shortage will occur, according to demographers’ estimates, within ten years. Baby boomers will become grandpa boomers, then will inevitably disappear from the age pyramid. “Currently, what we are absorbing is the initial shock,” explains the journalist in an interview. “We must understand that once the initial shock has passed, what comes after will be wear and tear. We can no longer go back. Forget the economic development model which was based on an abundant workforce. There will never be an abundance of labor again. »
This drought of workers does not affect the same way everywhere. “The hotel sector, catering, retail” are suffering more than others. The consequences are already visible: opening hours are reduced, and self-checkouts are becoming commonplace.
Do more with less
There are, of course, silver linings to the end of population growth. Fewer people overall means each of us becomes more valuable. Is the shortage good news for workers?
” Yes and no. » Yes, unemployment remains at historically low rates. Yes, hiring conditions are being revised upwards. “At the end of 2022, the number of jobs with hourly wages of less than $20 had decreased by 40%, while jobs offering between $20 and $30 (+9%), or more than $30 (+43%), had all increased,” explains Éric Desrosiers in his book.
Conversely, the stability of the entire economic sphere is compromised. “All that, yes, it’s a good thing. But, fundamentally, these salaries are paid by companies,” recalls Éric Desrosiers. “If companies have difficulty arriving, if these companies have to refuse contracts because they lack manpower and, in the end, not offer wages… The workers have the big end of the stick, but we are still all in the same economy. »
Like any good author of an economics book, the journalist extracts from his notes a fairly simple equation to model growth. And the mathematics is relentless. Without a growth in potential workers, we will have to squeeze the lemon of this given workforce so that it produces more wealth per hour worked. This is a “lucid” observation, some would say. The engine of prosperity falls on a now sacrosanct “productivity”.
“That doesn’t mean working harder, it means working smarter, more efficiently,” explains the experienced journalist.
Immigration won’t solve everything
Immigration will save the day, people claim left and right. Because we handpick them, these reinforcements will certainly help fill certain positions in certain sectors. But this temporary solution will not change the trajectory of demographic trends. Newcomers consume services as much as others, and then age like everyone else. “Basically, to fundamentally change the demographic balance, immigration volumes would have to be doubled or even tripled,” estimates Éric Desrosiers. ” This has nothing to do. »
The solution will therefore come mainly from within, from the productivity of all age groups.
One of the most difficult facts to swallow in this paradigm shift is that Quebec is far from being alone in having to keep its economy running with fewer wheels. The demographic shock is observed in 70% of the world’s populations.
A global competition therefore begins for brains and pairs of arms. This global race for the next generation will sooner or later lead other nations to take an interest in the people here. “With teleworking, it’s easy for a technology company from the American west coast to come and poach, with American salaries, workers here in Quebec. Same thing for European companies, for Ontario companies. We haven’t finished losing workers. We won’t get a break. »
This report is supported by the Local Journalism Initiative, funded by the Government of Canada.