Here is the news that Steven Guilbeault did not need. Canada has never met a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, and with the victory of Danielle Smith’s Conservatives in Alberta on Monday night, the 2030 target is receding like the horizon.
A small list of the projects of the Minister of the Environment of Canada:
- cap emissions from the oil and gas sector;
- introduce a Canadian clean electricity standard by 2035;
- ending fossil fuel subsidies;
- update carbon pricing to strengthen it;
- reduce methane emissions by 30% for agriculture and waste, and by 75% for oil and gas.
The environment is a jurisdiction shared between the federal government and the provinces. When we examine Mr. Guilbeault’s commitments, the same observation comes up: an inevitable confrontation with Alberta and other provinces.
Mme Smith, who replaced Jason Kenney at the head of the Conservative government in Edmonton, obtained a majority mandate. In her victory speech, she quickly identified her favorite rival: Justin Trudeau.
After reaching out to her by writing letters to her in January and February, Ms.me Smith promises to use “every tool” to fight him.
The Conservatives have already challenged carbon pricing in court. After losing, they go back to the barricades to invalidate the new environmental assessment process. Along with Saskatchewan, Alberta also wants to invalidate a decision by Ottawa that describes plastic products as “toxic”.
And the hardest part is yet to come.
For several months, the feds have been keeping a low profile. Mr. Guilbeault did not want to fuel anger in Alberta and help Mr.me Smith, who was in a close contest with the provincial New Democrats.
PHOTO JUSTIN TANG, THE CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Steven Guilbeault, Minister of Environment and Climate Change
The environment was not a central theme of this campaign. The Alberta NDP dared not attack the Conservatives on this front. Mme Smith unveiled a plan in April that closely resembled that of the oil and gas lobby.
It claims to aim for carbon neutrality in 2050, without giving itself any intermediate objective. It relies on technological innovation, with its fingers crossed for the future.
The clean electricity project is not unsaleable in Alberta.
Of course, M.me Smith opposes this because many households still heat with gas. But at least his province is progressing. It is on track to phase out coal this year. Emissions from its electricity sector have almost halved since 2005. It is also the territory in the country that invests the most in solar and wind energy.
For oil and gas emissions, it will be more complicated. Since 1990, GHGs in Alberta have jumped by 91 Mt. That’s three times more than all the hard-won reductions in Ontario and Quebec. Worse, this Alberta pollution could be underestimated, according to Canadian scientists 1.
The International Energy Agency recommends that no new oil and gas projects be allowed. IPCC scientists are urging countries to halve their emissions by 2030. To meet its target by then (at least a 40% drop from 2005), Canada must reverse the curve.
Alberta has a different discourse. It is betting that nuclear power, green hydrogen, energy efficiency and innovation will make it possible to avoid the worst. It has spent almost 2 billion in carbon capture. However, according to the IPCC, this technology is very expensive and its large-scale results remain to be proven. 2.
In its last budget, the minority Liberal government pumped billions into carbon capture hoping to appease Alberta. But on the other hand, his survival depends on his deal with Jagmeet Singh’s federal NDP, which demands an end to fossil fuel subsidies this year. Good luck.
In Ottawa, they quote theInflation Reduction Act of the United States as proof of the urgency of investing massively in the energy transition. But in Edmonton, it is recalled that President Joe Biden also authorized a huge oil drilling in Alaska. Since global demand for oil and gas remains strong, says Mme Smith, better answer it with our resources.
To maximize his chances of winning in court, Guilbeault caps emissions, not production, from oil and gas.
Details will be revealed in the coming months, such as the year from which GHGs will be capped and the rate of their reduction. But already, Alberta sees it as an attack on the heart of its economy.
Despite his victory, M.me Smith lost stalwarts of his government who were defeated or did not run again. It will be necessary to follow the composition of its council of ministers and the name of the person in charge of the Environment.
The Prime Minister could play the clock. She probably hopes that a federal election in 2024 would bring Pierre Poilievre to power. But if she gets too intransigent, she will serve as a useful scarecrow for Justin Trudeau. He will point it out, as he did with Doug Ford in 2019, saying: this is what a stubborn and doctrinaire Conservative government looks like, do you really want one that will rule from coast to coast?