It’s the week of all dangers. Thursday, France will be paralyzed. This does not seem to be in doubt as the anger seems great throughout the country against the pension reform that the government of Emmanuel Macron is about to pass. While the unions announce a first day of strike on Thursday, the government will face for the first time in 12 years a united trade union movement bringing together both moderate unions, such as the CFDT, and the most radical, such as the CGT and Force Ouvrière.
This walkout against the postponement of the retirement age from 62 to 64 and the extension of the contribution period to 43 years from 2027 promises to be massive, even if the ability of the unions to take to the streets millions of people is no longer what it once was. “It will be a very, very strong mobilization. It has to be at the level of 1995, even 2010, ”said CGT general secretary Philippe Martinez on Sunday on France 3.
Three out of four French people against the reform
In 2010, when it was already a question of postponing the retirement age from 60 to 62, the demonstrations had mobilized several million workers in the private and public sectors. This had not prevented Nicolas Sarkozy and his Prime Minister François Fillon from completing their project. In 1995, the “Juppé plan” aimed at aligning the pensions of civil servants with those of the private sector had given rise to the biggest demonstrations since May 68 and caused the dissolution of the government and new elections.
If no one expects such a massive movement, this first major mobilization since the election of Emmanuel Macron should largely affect trains, planes and public transport in major cities. The civil service has massively filed strike notices and National Education should be largely paralyzed. From pharmacists to the union of shellfish harvesters in Polynesia, few sectors seem to be spared. However, the unions have already announced that they wish to repeat the movement on January 26 and February 6.
Since the yellow vests, what worries the most are the spontaneous walkouts that largely escape the major trade unions. They are the ones who allowed, for example, a handful of employees to block refineries this fall, causing fuel shortages throughout France for two weeks. Same thing at Christmas, when a spontaneous movement of controllers active on social networks ruined the holidays of 200,000 travelers by paralyzing the TGVs.
“This time, we are faced with a political crisis which goes far beyond the problem of pensions”, explains the economist Bertrand Martinot of the Institut Montaigne and author of a study on the relationship between the French working population and the regard to work.
How to explain that three out of four French people say they are opposed to this reform when their life expectancy has continued to increase and when the retirement age in France is already one of the lowest in Europe? Only Greece, Norway and Sweden have a retirement age of 62. In Italy and Denmark it is 67, and in the majority of European countries around 65.
This rejection is particularly strong among working people. According to a survey by the Institut Montaigne, barely 7% of those who work approve of postponing the retirement age beyond 62 years. They are even 48% to judge that a departure at 62 is “excessive”, and only 45% to consider it satisfactory. An opinion that crosses all professional categories.
Active versus retired
“We are witnessing a real divide in the population between the assets, who massively consider this reform unfair and the retirees who are practically the only ones to approve it since they will not be affected”, explains Bertrand Martinot. If, because of the calculation of the 43 annuities, those who started working early see their retirement postponed for two years, this reform does not change anything for current retirees. Two million of them will even see their situation improve by raising the minimum pension to 1,200 euros per month.
This is why the think tank leftist Terra Nova called the reform “one-legged” because, he said, it “exempts current pensioners from any effort”. Retirees whose average standard of living was however, in 2019, 1.6% higher than that of the active population.
There is no doubt for Bertrand Martinot that this choice is political since the electorate of Emmanuel Macron’s party, like that of LR, is largely recruited from retirees. On the contrary, the electorate of the first opposition party in parliament, the National Rally (RN), is much younger and mainly in working life. However, if retirees turned their backs on this reform, there would not be many people left to support it, recognize several analysts.
It should not be inferred that the French do not attach importance to work, says Martinot. Contrary to a stubborn prejudice, studies show that each year, the French work two weeks more per year than the Germans. They also show that the French are more likely than the latter to value work and put it before leisure. The other side of the coin is that these same studies also tend to show that the French are less happy than their neighbors at work. This is perhaps why retirement appears in France as an untouchable sanctuary.
The “balance of accounts”?
After a more general reform aborted in 2020, hammered Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, this reform essentially wants to guarantee the balance of the system until 2030 (according to an optimistic scenario of 4.5% unemployment). A logic of balancing the accounts which is not easy to justify for a government renowned for “whatever it costs”, which has brought the annual budget deficit to 180 billion euros, and the debt to a record abyssal of 3000 billion.
“France has been sinking into deficits for 40 years,” said Martinot. However, pensions contribute only a small part. The assets are therefore wondering why they should be the only ones to bear the costs of this recovery. And the economist added that, whatever the proposed reform, the French would probably have opposed it as the rate of dissatisfaction is high in France with regard to politicians.
Many analysts believe that with the rise in energy prices, the rise in violence against people and the repeated use of the exceptional procedure (49-3) in the National Assembly, distrust of the respect for the government is at its height. Several incriminate a presidential election which, like the previous one, was decided on the simple rejection of Marine Le Pen and where political programs took second place. Will we witness this “convergence of struggles” spoken of by the leaders of the left? “Nothing is less certain,” said Martinot. There is also a lot of weariness in the population, and a real political disengagement. »
“Emmanuel Macron is playing his five-year term and undoubtedly his future”, writes the economic journalist Jean-Marc Sylvestre on the Atlantico site. It is difficult to see how a failure on such a minimal reform would allow it to survive politically. As two months of parliamentary debate begin, the movement could stretch until March. Thursday’s mobilization should give a first idea.