The war benefits Viktor Orbán

Threatened by an opposition that is more united than ever, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, has seen the tide turn in his favor since Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s not all over, but he has a good chance of winning a fourth consecutive term in the legislative elections on April 3.

A vote in the shadow of the invasion of Ukraine

“I have the idea that we will continue to collaborate for a long time. It was with this friendly quip banking on their common political longevity that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán concluded his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It was the 1^er February, in Moscow. The dark clouds of war were already gathering on the horizon.

But according to what emerged from their discussions, the two leaders did not dwell on the impending conflict. Instead, they referred to Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant expansion project, which will be funded by a $20 billion Russian loan — and which is described as the biggest energy project ever in Hungary.

They also talked about the additional billion cubic meters of gas that Hungary wants to buy from Russia. And the Hungarian astronaut that Russia plans to invite aboard the space station… in 2025.

It was the 12^and Victor Orbán’s visit to Moscow in 13 years. The two leaders who have become accustomed to familiarity over the years have once again displayed their friendship. Responding to criticism, Viktor Orbán went so far as to claim that he had just carried out a “mission of peace” with the master of the Kremlin.

Three weeks and two days later, Vladimir Putin launched Russian tanks and aircraft against Ukraine.

With the approach of the April 3 legislative elections during which Viktor Orbán is seeking a fourth consecutive term, his generous friend could have become politically cumbersome. Neighboring Ukraine, Hungary has had to take in hundreds of thousands of refugees over the past month.

Faced with an opposition that, for the first time, formed a united bloc to face it, Fidesz, the party of Viktor Orbán, seemed to be dragging its feet.

During the fall, he was even beaten by the six-party coalition led by the mayor of a small Hungarian town, Peter Marki-Zay – unheard of since Orbán took the power he exercises. continuously for 12 years.

But since the bombs rained down on Ukraine, the conservative and nationalist leader has rather regained the hair of the beast. And the lead given to him by the polls allows him to hope to win the vote on April 3.

How can this reversal be explained?

“The soufflé had already fallen a little at the beginning of winter”, nuance Corentin Léotard, editor-in-chief of the Courrier d’Europe centrale and coordinator of the book Hungary under Orbánan essay co-authored by six international correspondents based in Budapest.

It must be said that the coalition born of the marriage of parties with opposite orientations, ranging from the extreme right to the left, after having breathed a wind of energy into the Hungarian political landscape, had difficulty in taking off. “They spent a lot of time criticizing Viktor Orbán, less explaining their program,” says Corentin Léotard.

Then Viktor Orbán, this “fine political animal”, managed to reposition himself since the fateful February 24, the day of the outbreak of the Russian offensive.

“By his skill, but also by his media power, he managed to make people forget his closeness to Putin and to present himself as a defender of the people who will prevent Hungary from being drawn into the war. »

On the one hand, there is the opposition pointing the finger at Viktor Orbán saying, “Look who his friends are,” observes Marta Pardavi, co-chair of the Helsinki Committee, a human rights NGO.

But the Hungarians have been anxious since the start of the war which has fallen on their neighbour. “And Orbán tells them that he will not let their country be dragged into this conflict. »

“The armed conflict in Ukraine dominates public discourse in Hungary,” summarizes the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in a report published this week.

It would have been “reasonable” to imagine that his alliance with Vladimir Putin would be problematic for Viktor Orbán, underlines Zoltan Miklosi, political scientist at the University of Central Europe, an establishment driven out of Budapest by the Orbán regime.

“But people don’t react rationally, for the most part, war creates uncertainty, it’s not the time to go into the unknown. »

Electoral inequity

It must be said that Viktor Orbán and his party also benefit from electoral rules and a media environment that work in their favour.

The observation mission on an unprecedented scale that the OSCE intends to deploy to monitor the vote on April 3 is already a strong symbol, showing how Hungarian democracy is failing, points out Marta Pardavi.

State-controlled public television gave the opposition candidate just five minutes to address voters. Peter Marki-Zay spent four to dismantle the lies that the regime spreads about him and only one to explain his program, notes Corentin Léotard.

“You have the choice between East and West,” he then proclaimed. Faced with an Orbán long aligned with Putin and in conflict with Brussels, Peter Marki-Zay proposes to bring Hungary into the euro zone, to join the European anti-corruption prosecutor’s office and to renew the European links damaged by the “illiberal” policies of Fidesz.

But these same “illiberal” reforms precisely allow Viktor Orbán to dominate the public space. Over the past few months, he has literally showered voters with gifts: tax credits, increases in pension benefits and the minimum wage, reports Zoltan Miklosi. At the same time, he accuses his opponent of wanting to dip into the pockets of taxpayers by reducing their social benefits. Wrong, retorts Peter Marki-Zay. But this message is not passed on by the mainstream media while the pro-Orbán discourse is omnipresent.

Thin thread

On the war in Ukraine, Prime Minister Orbán walks on a thin line. The mass media do not hide the massacres. Hungarian public opinion is wary of Moscow and remembers 1956 when Warsaw Pact troops crushed the Budapest uprising.

But at the same time, in its speech, the Orbán regime avoids distributing faults.

Faced with an incomprehensible war, Hungarians only want one thing: to stay out of the conflict. What promises them Viktor Orbán, who opened the doors of the country to Ukrainian refugees, but opposes new sanctions against Russia and refuses that arms delivered to Ukrainians transit through Hungary.

It’s not all over, but this balancing act could secure him four more years of reign.

Peter Marki-Zay, the unlikely candidate

When he won the primaries of the opposition coalition in October in view of the Hungarian legislative elections on April 3, Peter Marki-Zay was the first to be surprised at the result of the vote.

The coalition, nicknamed “The Hungary of all”, is itself atypical: it rallies six parties, from the far right to the left, united within a single project, that of ending the reign of the ultraconservative and nationalist Viktor Orbán.

At 49, Peter Marki-Zay is not affiliated with any of these parties. A relatively newcomer to politics, he rose to prominence in the 2018 municipal elections, when he defeated the ruling candidate in the provincial town of Hodmezovasarhely.

Far from the urban elites who dominate the current of opposition to Viktor Orbán, the one designated by his initials, PMZ, is rather a social conservative, practicing Catholic and father of seven children. But that may also be where its strength lies.

What future for Marki-Zay?

In Hungary, a third of the electorate is won over to Viktor Orbán, a third supports the opposition and a third floats between the two or abstains from voting, analysts point out.

“We have to face the facts, Hungarian society is predominantly right-wing and conservative,” observes Corentin Léotard, a journalist based in Budapest. With his reassuring pedigree, Peter Marki-Zay is well placed to rally the abstainers and the undecided. And to bridge the gap between the capital and the rest of the country.

But Peter Marki-Zay also faces some challenges. “He is not very charismatic, he has poor control of his speech and tends to make his left-wing allies uncomfortable,” says Corentin Léotard.

The latter will go and vote for him “while covering their noses”, but even in the event of victory, which today seems unlikely, they risk deposing him quickly.

However, its political independence could then turn against PMZ: without a political party other than a fragile coalition, it risks quickly falling into the dustbin of history.