Two thirds more waste by 2050: the volume of waste in the world, at 2.3 billion tonnes in 2023, is expected to continue to grow exponentially, in the absence of action, with a massive impact on health and economies, warns the UN on Wednesday.
At this rate, current waste (excluding industrial and construction waste) is expected to reach 3.8 billion tonnes by mid-century, exceeding the forecasts of the previous report devoted to this theme by the World Bank.
The crisis will be all the more acute as their growth is expected to be particularly marked in countries where their method of treatment remains polluting: landfills, open-air incineration (soil pollution, emission of greenhouse gases such as methane or pollutants like carbon soot)…
“Despite efforts, little has changed,” summarizes the new report produced by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). “Humanity has even gone backwards, generating more waste […]. Billions of people do not benefit from waste collection.”
If in rich countries the essentials are collected, the collection rate is less than 40% in low-income countries.
Today, between 400,000 and one million people die each year from diseases linked to inappropriate waste management (diarrhea, malaria, cardiovascular pathologies, cancer), underlines the report published for the VIe session of the United Nations Environment Assembly, organized this week in Nairobi.
Waste left on the ground spreads pathogens, heavy metals and other endocrine disruptors into the soil and groundwater for a long time. Their open-air combustion releases persistent pollutants into the atmosphere. Organic waste that decomposes in landfills is responsible for 20% of human emissions of methane, the most warming of all greenhouse gases.
Opportunities
If nothing is done, the direct and indirect cost of waste in the world is expected to almost double to reach $640 billion annually by 2050, estimates this report, both a “guide and a call to action”.
In 2020, the direct cost of waste treatment was estimated at 252 billion dollars (361 billion if we include the indirect costs linked to pollution generated by unsuitable installations or management methods).
There is “urgency” to begin “a drastic reduction in waste” and to invest in the circular economy, calls the UN: “We must act to avoid the worst-case scenario”.
“Many rapidly growing economies are struggling under the growing weight of waste,” underlines UNEP director Inger Andersen, pointing to “the key role” of public and private actors who can find there “opportunities to create more sustainable societies.” viable”.
Keeping waste “under control”, particularly through better treatment methods, could limit its net annual cost to $270 billion by 2050.
But it is possible to go further, by moving towards a true circular economy, better industrial practices and complete management of residual waste, all of which could even generate a net gain of more than 100 billion dollars annually ( energy generation, reuse, job creation, etc.), argues the report, entitled “Transforming waste into resources”.
But among the obstacles, the authors always note “a lack of recognition of this emergency”: “political leaders must recognize the urgency of the crisis and its impacts on society”, they insist.