the victory of the extreme right “is a shock” but “there will be a cordon santé to prevent” its accession to power, according to Patrick Martin-Genier

Exit polls suggest Geert Wilders’ Islamophobic far-right Dutch party won the parliamentary election on Wednesday.

“It’s a real shock” And “a cold shower”, reacted Wednesday November 22 on franceinfo Patrick Martin-Genier, teacher at Science Po and at Inalco, specialist in Europe, after the announced victory of the far right in the legislative elections in the Netherlands. Far-right leader Geert Wilders is given the victory, according to exit polls. But for Patrick Martin-Genier, it will be “difficult” to form a government. “There will be a sort of belt around him to prevent him from coming to power”analyzes the Europe specialist who remains worried about the European elections in June 2024. “Europe is giving itself over to the far right.”

franceinfo: What could be the consequences of the victory of the far right in the legislative elections in the Netherlands?

Patrick Martin-Genier: This is a real shock in the Netherlands, in a country that Mark Rutte, a centrist-liberal, governed for 13 years. It’s a real cold shower because we thought that the far right could win seats, but we gave it around 27 or 28 seats. We expected progress, but not in this extraordinary way. It has 35, even 36 seats. It’s a real shock to see that today, this country is giving itself over to the far right in this way, even if it will be very difficult to form a new government.

Isn’t far-right leader Geert Wilders a political novice?

No. He is someone who carried the anti-migratory theme. He wants a stop to immigration. This is someone who wants to close all the mosques in the Netherlands. So he has an anti-Islam agenda. And he is someone who surfs on all the social difficulties and all the difficulties which, according to him, come from immigration and which cause a shock in the Netherlands. By playing on fears, this is what can explain the progression of this far-right party.

Will Geert Wilders be able to form a coalition to take power for the first time or will it be very complicated?

For me, it’s completely impossible. The shock that was created by this victory is that there will be a sort of belt around him to prevent him from coming to power. If only because with 35 seats, it is impossible to form a government. Even if, moreover, the other parties will have to be able to combine to form a coalition government.

“Everything will be done to prevent Geert Wilders from becoming Prime Minister, which would be a shock in this country, but which would also be a considerable setback for the European Union.”

Patrick Martin-Genier, teacher at Science Po and Inalco

at franceinfo

What are the other solutions? A coalition of other parties that came in behind or new elections?

We will have to see who can form a coalition government. Frans Timmermans, the former European commissioner, at the head of a green left alliance, it will be difficult for him to ally with the supporters of Mark Rutte, even if they are democratic parties. So we will see if there is the possibility of having, as in Germany, a sort of grand coalition. Let’s not forget the New Social Contract party, which is a party that did not exist a few years ago, which was created and which obtained around twenty seats.

This political party will be a sort of kingmaker. And we can imagine a grand German-style coalition which could bring together moderates from the different political parties, from the social democrats to the social contract party. We must also not forget that there are around twelve other political parties which share around fifty seats. So the game is not over. There will be a sort of cordon santé that will be put in place to prevent the extreme right from coming to power.

Could there be consequences for the European Union and for the elections coming up in 2024?

Of course, this is also a shock for Europeans. I think that the far right, in the Netherlands as in Europe, risks making considerable progress in the elections in June 2024. Geert Wilders is anti-European. So this can have consequences on everything that is European regulation in terms of the environment, for example, in terms of social protection, in terms of immigration with the asylum-immigration pact which was put forward in the European Parliament by Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), on which the States disagree. This could also have consequences for aid to Ukraine. We can clearly see that Europe, sad to say, is in the process of giving itself over to the extreme right.